Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Juneau, AK

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FXAK67 PAJK 221242
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
442 AM AKDT Fri Mar 22 2024

.SHORT TERM.../ through Friday night / Little in way of changes to
the short term forecast as the surface ridge across the Gulf of
Alaska persists through Friday. Temperatures for the norther
portion may be a degree or two cooler as cirrus clouds are moving
south from the Yukon Territory and to the eastern gulf putting a
thin layer of clouds to block some solar radiation. Highs in the
40s to lower 50s and will likely see lows fall back to the 20s to
low 30s. The hardest part of the forecast seems to trying to
finalize the Max and Min temperature.

Marine deck out over the Gulf of Alaska remains, however, most of
it is not near the coast, a few pockets near Prince of Wales coast
and another near Metlakatla south towards Dixon Entrance. Expect
that the marine deck will be in similar potions overnight.

.LONG TERM...The long term forecast continues to remain relatively
quiet with high pressure controlling the weather over SE AK. Confidence
in the high pressure controlling the forecast through the week
though is high and ensemble guidance is in agreement with this
thought as well. Ensemble and deterministic guidance continue to
try and break down the ridge and shift it east allowing for an
increasing chance of precipitation towards the end of the week.
But this will need to be watched through the week to see exactly
when things start to shift. Looking at long range guidance issued
from Climate Prediction Center, the rest of the long term looks to
remain warm and dry overall with increasing probabilities of above
normal temperatures and near normal precipitation for this time of
the year.

&&

.AVIATION...Conditions will continue to remain VFR across most
the panhandle, barring a few locations during the morning hours on
Friday which could see some fog, though this will swiftly
dissipate with warming daytime temperatures. A few of the channel
entrances and some of the outer coastal communities may see a low
marine deck - though this will move back out to sea through the
day. Some sea breezes are possible as temperatures increase, but
overall flow across SE AK will continue to remain out of the
North.


&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Bezenek
LONG TERM....Ferrin
AVIATION...GFS

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