058
FXUS64 KAMA 091700
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1200 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM ...
(Today through Friday night)
Issued at 305 AM CDT Thu May 9 2024

Mostly quiet conditions are forecast to end the work week for the
Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles. Light showers and/or storms are
possible tonight and Friday night for mainly the western
Panhandles. Severe thunderstorms are not expected should any
thunderstorms develop either of these days.

Infrared satellite imagery depicts high clouds across the central
and western portions of the CWA early this morning. Temperatures
at this time range from the upper 40s to mid 50s across the
region with easterly winds. Surface moisture has returned to the
area with dew points rising into the 30s behind a weak front still
moving across the area at the time of this writing.

The surface boundary that is pushing through the Panhandles this
morning should stall to the west and southwest of the area later
on today. To the east of the boundary, breezy winds out of the
east are forecast but fire weather is not anticipated as moisture
will be higher across the region when compared to the last few
days. Even though most areas today will be mostly sunny, very
little WAA is forecast for the area today so highs will be below
average in the upper 60s to mid 70s. Zonal flow will continue
through the evening hours into the night tonight. A disturbance in
the flow aloft may aid in generating some showers and storms
tonight across mainly the western and northwestern Panhandles.
Most CAMs have at least some light moisture making it to the area
during this time frame. Forecast soundings do not depict much, if
any, elevated instability so severe storms are not forecast at
this time. For areas that do receive rain tonight, should any
showers make it this far east, only light amounts are expected.

The upper level pattern remains practically unchanged for Friday
and similar conditions appear likely for the region. Main
difference at this time looks to be lighter winds on Friday
afternoon, with the current sustained wind forecast in the 10 to
15 mph range out of the east. Highs will once again be in the
upper 60s to mid 70s with some cloud cover, mainly for the central
and west. An additional shortwave will move across the area Friday
evening. A few showers and storms may reach the far western areas
during the nighttime hours, with very little rainfall expected if
any precipitation makes it this far east.

Muscha

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 305 AM CDT Thu May 9 2024

Confidence is increasing in below average temperatures continuing
through weekend and there are better chances for rainfall area
wide. Exact amounts of rainfall are still a question, but there is
a good chance that most locations will see at least light rainfall
this weekend. The system that brings the rain chances exits to the
east by early next week and temperatures should warm back up and
rain chances may continue.

An H500 low with the center near the Four Corners region will
slowly move off to the east this weekend into early next week. The
09/00z suite of guidance continues to be in good agreement with
the track of the low, just how quick does it move off to the east
and how strong is the low remain the questions at this time. In
any case, the track is favorable to provide lift for
precipitation. The unknowns are the amount of moisture available
throughout the atmosphere and how quickly does the low (and lift)
move off to the east. Even if the unfavorable solution of less
moisture and faster moving system comes to fruition (as depicted
by the GFS), rain chances still look pretty good for the area,
just the amount of moisture received is not all that great. In any
case, the latest LREF/NBM probabilities for a half inch of rain
are still favorable at this time, with a 30-50 percent chance area
wide. The best chance for rainfall this weekend looks to be on
Sunday afternoon into the evening as this is when the low pressure
system looks to be moving over the Southern High Plains.

Monday through mid week will start warming up as the low pressure
system exits off to the east. Westerly flow is forecast through
mid week as a weak low pressure system moves over the Desert
Southwest. Warmer air looks to return to the area with highs
likely returning to near or above average during the work week.
Model guidance suggests a few weak disturbances embedded in the
flow may move over the Panhandles during this time frame. Should
enough moisture be present, showers and thunderstorms chances may
continue through at least the middle part of next week.

Muscha

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1133 AM CDT Thu May 9 2024

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the 18Z TAF period.
Winds will generally be out of the north or east and below 10 kts.
KAMA may see winds upwards of 15 to 18 kts between now and 00Z
Fri. Expect a few to scattered high clouds through the period.
KDHT as a low end chance for some showers mainly between 00Z and
06Z Friday. Have left out mentions of rain in the TAF due to low
confidence in the eastward extent of activity that should be
primarily in eastern NM.

36

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                48  72  50  71 /  10  10  10  30
Beaver OK                  46  76  47  79 /   0  10   0  10
Boise City OK              45  67  44  71 /  30  20  10  40
Borger TX                  49  76  51  77 /  10  10   0  20
Boys Ranch TX              48  74  49  73 /  20  10  10  40
Canyon TX                  47  72  48  70 /  10  10  10  40
Clarendon TX               50  74  52  72 /   0  10   0  20
Dalhart TX                 43  68  44  70 /  20  10  10  40
Guymon OK                  45  73  46  76 /  10  10   0  20
Hereford TX                48  73  49  71 /  10   0  10  40
Lipscomb TX                48  76  50  78 /   0   0   0  10
Pampa TX                   48  73  50  74 /  10   0   0  20
Shamrock TX                50  76  51  75 /   0   0   0  10
Wellington TX              50  76  51  75 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...36