329
FXUS61 KBTV 140755
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
355 AM EDT Tue May 14 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
An unsettled weather pattern will continue over the next couple
of days with several rounds of showers, with numerous showers
and some embedded thunderstorms expected tomorrow. Seasonable
high temperatures and mild overnight lows are expected for much
of the upcoming week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 110 AM EDT Tuesday...Have adjusted forecast to reflect
current radar trends, increasing pops where it`s presently
raining to begin with. Rain is mainly light to moderate, but has
also been briefly heavy in some locations. Temperatures will
remain mild overnight with SLK close to a record warm minimum
temperature.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...Model soundings for tomorrow show tall
and skinny CAPE profiles, supporting the idea of some heavy
downpours and embedded thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon, with
PWAT values in excess of an inch. Current QPF amounts range from
a few tenths to near an inch, with localized higher amounts
expected in any thunderstorms. The latest CAM guidance suggests
CAPE values between 500 to 1200 J/kg across southern portions of
the forecast area tomorrow, with temperatures warming into the
70s. Meanwhile closer to the International Border, temperatures
will only warm into the upper 60s. There is still a little
uncertainty regarding the instability across the region tomorrow
afternoon as lingering cloud cover will limit surface heating.
There is the potential for training storm motions with any
developing convection, which will need to be monitored given the
potential for heavier downpours. While widespread severe is not
currently anticipated, NCAR is showing a non-zero threat for
some severe weather and there will likely be plenty of activity
to monitor tomorrow afternoon. Shower activity will dwindle
heading into the evening with the lack of diurnal heating, with
overnight lows expected to be quite mild for this time of year.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 355 AM EDT Tuesday...The forecast for the latter half of the
work week is relatively unchanged from the previous thinking with
the main features of interest being a stalling frontal boundary over
the region and an upper low closing off over the eastern seaboard.
Afternoon convection on Wednesday associated with the stalling
surface boundary will gradually dissipate in the evening with the
loss of daytime heating and much of Wednesday night should be dry
and mild with min temps only in the 50s. As the front stalls over
the region on Thursday in response to the upper low closing off,
additional showers will develop from mid-day through the afternoon
but as mid- level heights rise towards the evening with the approach
of a weak mid-level ridge we should see showers rapidly dissipate.
Dry conditions follow for Thursday night through Friday with the
ridge in place, allowing for temperatures to remain above normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 355 AM EDT Tuesday...Heading into the weekend and early next
week, our unsettled pattern continues with almost a rinse and repeat
of this week with a frontal passage likely on Saturday, followed by
another potential closed low moving offshore on Monday. The greatest
chance for showers comes Saturday afternoon with a frontal passage
and enhanced PWATs with origins in the Gulf of Mexico, with hit or
miss showers possible Sunday with a hint of some weak upper level
ridging possible. This is followed by another deepening trough over
the eastern seaboard renewing chances for showers Sunday night into
Monday. Temps look to remain slightly above normal with highs
generally in the upper 60s to mid 70s and lows mainly in the 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 06Z Wednesday...Mainly VFR conditions are expected for
the next few hours. Winds throughout the period will range
between southeast to southwest between 5 and 10 knots, with a
few gusts 15 to 18 knots at KBTV. Some showers currently moving
through the airspace. Showers will be likely across the region
between 06z and 10z as frontal boundary lifts north and then
stalls near the international border. In heavier elements, 3-6SM
visibility and ceilings 2000-3000 ft agl will be possible.
Patches of low level wind shear will develop behind the warm
front from about 04z to 10z for 35 to 40 knot southwest winds at
2000 ft agl.

Some partial clearing and lifting ceilings follow the warm
front 10z-12z, but where warm front stalls is not entirely
certain. Therefore, the forecast maintains VCSH for several
terminals. Additional showers and thunderstorms will develop
about 18z. A weak trough will shift south, with convection near
the trough and lifting north-northeast towards the trough axis
until it passes south sometime near or after 00z Wednesday. It`s
too far out now, but some thunderstorms could be strong, and
there will be potential for ceiling and visibility reductions
between 18z beyond 00z Wednesday.

Outlook...

Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Likely SHRA.
Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance
SHRA.
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Friday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Kremer
NEAR TERM...Chai/Kremer/Neiles
SHORT TERM...Lahiff
LONG TERM...Lahiff
AVIATION...Haynes/Neiles