355
FXUS64 KFWD 160646
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
146 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Through Tuesday Afternoon/

Local radar imagery shows that the scattered convection that
developed across portions of Central Texas and the Hill Country
Sunday afternoon and early evening has dissipated given the loss
of daytime heating and weak forcing. The remainder of the
overnight period should be precipitation-free with generally
mostly clear skies and light east/northeast winds which should
yield morning lows a few degrees cooler than yesterday. The
persistent low over the Lower Mississippi Valley, remnants of
Francine, is beginning to drift further southwest as Potential
Tropical Cyclone Eight nears the coast of the Carolinas. This will
allow for wrap-around moisture/clouds to shift westward this
morning, resulting in a cloudy start across parts of East Texas
and maybe even as far west as the eastern Metroplex.

Situated between a seasonably strong mid-level low dropping along
the northern California coastline and a weak Rex Block meandering
over the eastern U.S., mid/upper level ridging will prevail
through the period. Expect unseasonably warm temperatures to
continue with afternoon highs in the mid 80s to mid 90s and
overnight lows in the mid 60s to lower 70s. For mid September,
the average high/low at DFW and Waco are 89/69F and 91/67F,
respectively.

12

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 251 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024/
/Tuesday Through Next Weekend/

Summer-like weather will continue for much of the upcoming work
week as weak upper level ridging prevails aloft. High temperatures
will be roughly 5 to 10 degrees above normal, topping out in the
mid 90s for most locations each day. Gulf moisture will be
especially prevalent during the mid to late week time period,
resulting in warm and muggy mornings with low temperatures only
falling into the low to mid 70s. Heat index values may surpass the
triple digit mark for many locations, particularly Wednesday
through Friday. No chances for showers and thunderstorms are
currently expected through the end of the work week.

There is a glimmer of hope that we`ll return to a more active
pattern heading into next weekend as an upper level trough works
to break down the ridge over the southern CONUS. The NBM brings
low storm chances back to the region Friday evening, with storm
chances possibly lingering through the weekend. Stay tuned (and
keep your fingers crossed) as these details come more into focus
over the next several days.

Barnes

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/06Z TAFs/

Aviation Concerns: MVFR CIGs approaching the eastern DFW
Metroplex around daybreak.

Moisture arriving via east-northeasterly low-level winds will
likely result in MVFR and even some IFR CIGs advecting south and
west into far East Texas before daybreak. The probability of MVFR
ceilings reaching the eastern North Texas terminals (including
KDFW, KDAL, and KGRK) remains low (~20-30%), though given the
orientation of low-level flow and upstream observations we cannot
rule out some westward expansion of at least high-end MVFR
ceilings. Have maintained the previously introduced TEMPO for
lowered ceilings for 12-16Z. Otherwise, VFR flight conditions are
expected to persist through the period with wind speeds remaining
light (at or below 10 kts) with continued variability between
E-NE and E-SE. For Waco...VFR will prevail with light east-northeasterly
winds at or below 10 kts.

12

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    90  71  90  74  95 /   0   0   0   0   0
Waco                93  69  94  72  95 /   0   0   0   0   0
Paris               87  68  86  67  91 /   0   0   0   0   0
Denton              91  67  91  70  95 /   0   0   0   0   0
McKinney            91  68  90  70  95 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dallas              92  70  92  73  96 /   0   0   0   0   0
Terrell             90  68  90  69  94 /   0   0   0   0   0
Corsicana           92  70  93  72  96 /   0   0   0   0   0
Temple              95  69  95  71  96 /   0   0   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       92  67  92  69  96 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$