Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA
293 FXUS66 KHNX 162140 AFDHNX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hanford CA 240 PM PDT Thu May 16 2024 && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Afternoon temperatures will remain well above seasonal values through Sunday. 2. Strong wind gusts will impact the Mojave Slopes this evening. A Wind Advisory has been issued in this area for tonight. 3. A slight cooling trend is expected to take place early next week. A few strong thunderstorms are possible in the Sierra Nevada this Saturday afternoon. && .DISCUSSION... An upper level area of high pressure remains to the northwest of central California today. The low pressure system over Baja California has progressed eastward into the desert southwest, setting up an Omega blocking pattern over much of the west coast. This pattern is notorious for increasing temperatures underneath the center of the high pressure system. While central California is not under the center of the high, the effects are certainly being felt. The San Joaquin Valley experienced maximum temperatures on Wednesday in the low to mid 90s, up to ten degrees above seasonal averages. These warmer conditions are expected to continue this afternoon; the NBM ensemble gives the following probabilities to reach or exceed 94 degrees this afternoon. Fresno56% Lemoore56% Bakersfield 51% Delano51% Hanford41% Visalia41% Porterville46% Madera26% Merced21% Reedley11% The aforementioned upper level ridge is projected to weaken into Friday as an upper level longwave trough begins to influence our region. The center of the trough will be located over the northern plains, bringing elevated winds to our region from the northwest. The prevailing flow over central California is expected to result in a slight cooling trend for the weekend and entering next week; afternoon temperatures will return near normal in the upper 80s to near 90 in the San Joaquin Valley and Kern County Desert. In addition, the mid level flow over the region will experience orographic lifting over the Sierra Nevada. This will result in a chance for stronger afternoon thunderstorms on Saturday along the crests. The greatest danger will be dangerous cloud to ground lightning associated with these thunderstorms. Winds will also be elevated resulting from this upper level system and as such, a Wind Advisory has been issued for the Mojave Desert Slopes due to projected winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 50 mph possible. Cluster analysis is expressing a continuation of this upper level pattern through much of next week. Temperatures are expected to remain near seasonal averages in the upper 80s through the week, however with a brief warming near 90 on Tuesday. && .AVIATION... MVFR conditions are possible in scattered cloud cover along the crests of the Sierra Nevada until 06Z. Stronger wind gusts up to 50 mph are expected in the Mojave Desert Slopes. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail across central California over the next 24 hours. && .AIR QUALITY ISSUES... ISSUED: 05/15/2024 14:40 EXPIRES: 05/16/2024 23:59 None. && .CERTAINTY... The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium. Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback. && .HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Wind Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM PDT Friday for CAZ338. && $$ public/aviation...SM DSS..............DAS weather.gov/hanford