Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana
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929 FXUS63 KIWX 140909 AFDIWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 509 AM EDT Tue May 14 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers and scattered storms at times will persist through the weekend and into early next week. - Locally heavy rainfall is possible, but widespread flooding and severe storms are not expected. - Temperatures will rise above normal with highs around 80 Sunday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 327 AM EDT Tue May 14 2024 A wet pattern is ahead as a series of upper level systems drift across the CONUS and reach the Midwest and Ohio Valley regions. The core of initial system was over northeast MO early this morning with energy extending well south to near the Red River over southern Oklahoma. This system will spread additional showers and scattered storms across the area mainly this afternoon and tonight. The environment ahead of this system will consist of very low CAPE values with tall/thin CAPEs. Bulk shear will remain low and should not be enough to support severe storms. Saturation up to 300 mb is expected with high precipitable water values (1.2 to 1.4") which will favor heavy downpours which could lead to brief local flooding of poor drainage areas and possible an isolated urban area. A second in the series of upper level system will bring an additional round of rain showers and scattered storms Thursday night through Friday with lingering showers possible Saturday. The environment ahead of this system will be similar to the one today and favorable for heavy downpours. More energy arrive early next week a support more showers and storms. Highs Sunday should be close to 80 with dew points probably topping 60 degrees. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 504 AM EDT Tue May 14 2024 Mid-level troughing continues remains over the area this morning and a few scattered showers are noted on latest radar imagery. The TAF sites look to remain mostly dry through 17z Tue for KFWA and through 22z Tue for KSBN. After these times MVFR conditions with light rain slightly lowering vsbys/cigs. There will be the chance for a few thunderstorms later this afternoon across the area but did not feel confident enough for KSBN and only added the mention of thunder for KFWA after 19z Tue. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...None. OH...None. MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Skipper AVIATION...Andersen