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000
FXUS62 KMHX 160537
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
137 AM EDT Tue Apr 16 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains offshore today while a backdoor cold
front approaches from the north and moves through the area
tonight. This front will then lift back north as a warm front
tomorrow. High pressure ridging briefly builds back into the
Southeast around midweek before the next cold front impacts the
area next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
As of 1045 PM Monday...The back door cold front is currently
over the Delmarva peninsula and northern VA, making its way
south. Ahead of the front, a line of strong thunderstorms and
showers are making its way south, encroaching on the NC/VA
border at the time of this update. Southerly flow ahead of the
front is rapidly switching to northwesterly behind the front.
The front will slowly continue moving south, but as we get into
tonight, convection becomes less favorable due to a lack of
daytime heating and an inversion allows a stubborn 300 J/kg of
CIN to develop. The more unfavorable environment as the storms
approach the CWA will result in rapid weakening, with the most
likely outcome being scattered showers with a few rumbles of
thunder for northern most counties and waters. As the showers
which enter northern portions of the CWA around 3Z struggle to
sustain themselves moving south, they break down further and
dissipate altogether by 6-8Z, leaving the southern two-thirds
of the CWA rain free. While unlikely, if these storms find a way
of sustaining themselves despite the diminishing instability,
mid- level lapse rates around 8C, ample bulk shear (~45 kt), and
impressive DCAPE (~1300 J/kg) are enough to bring forth strong
to severe wind gusts and small hail concerns. If severe storms
are able to persist, the best chance will be north of HWY 264
between 03-06Z with chances decreasing as the line moves
farther south.

Once the convection dies out, debris clouds will hang around
overnight and help keep us mild with lows in the low-60s across the
CWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TODAY/...
As of 8 PM Monday...No major changes with this update.

Previous Discussion...As of 4PM Monday...The backdoor cold
front pushing through tonight will lift north as a warm front
tomorrow. Highs will push well into the 80s again for the
coastal plain while the OBX will remain around 70. The warm
front will support scattered shower and thunderstorm development
tomorrow afternoon with greatest chances (15-20%) across the
coastal plain.

&&

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 330 AM Mon... A fairly active pattern is on tap this week with
multiple frontal passages impacting the area into this weekend.

Tue and Wed... Upper ridging will push east across the Mid-Atlantic
on Tue and eventually off the coast by Wed while a weakening
trough lifts NE`wards from the Central CONUS into the Great
Lakes Tue into Wed. Mid level shortwave will track along this
upper ridging passing across the Carolinas Tue evening with a
second shortwave moving across the area on Wed. At the surface
stalled frontal boundary across the southern half of the CWA
will gradually lift N`wards Tue evening as a warm front. As
this front lifts N`wards ample moisture will combine with
increasing lift to result in isolated to widely scattered shower
and thunderstorm activity Tue afternoon and evening with this
activity lifting to the north of ENC by early Wed morning as the
front moves out of the area. As the second shortwave moves
across the Mid-Atlantic on Wed another round of isolated to
widely scattered shower and thunderstorm activity will be
possible as a surface trough sets up along the Coastal Plain. At
the same time a weakening cold front will be approaching from
the west as well nearing the area by late Wed night. Temps will
remain above avg across the Coastal Plain with highs generally
in the low to mid 80s with temps nearing 70 along the SOBX.
Temps wilL be much cooler along the NOBX on Tue behind the
stalled boundary as NE`rly flow will bring a cool maritime
airmass over the region with temps rebounding on Wed into the
70s as SW`rly flow quickly returns.

Thurs into next weekend... Some minor tweaks to the forecast given
the latest trends as it now looks like multiple fronts will be
impacting the area to end our week. Weak upper trough quickly
transits across the Mid-Atlantic on Thursday with zonal flow
overspreading the area this weekend. A second stronger trough
then approaches from the west at the start of next week. At the
surface cold front sweeps through the area Thurs morning once
again bringing a chance for some scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms through Thurs evening before we dry out on Fri.
Yet another frontal boundary impacts ENC Sat afternoon into
Sunday bringing a chance for more widespread precip this
weekend. Otherwise temps generally remain above avg into this
weekend before cooling off behind the second frontal passage
on Sat.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through 06z Wednesday/...
As of 135 AM Tue...High confidence in VFR conditions through
the period. Backdoor cold front is currently across central VA
and will gradually make its way south across the terminals
through 12z as winds gradually veer from southwesterly to
northerly. Late this afternoon, sea and sound breezes become
dominant and flow veers easterly. Some convection could
potentially develop west of the terminals and encroach coastal
plain terminals just before 00z, but stabilizing effect of sea
and sound breezes will likely result in showers/storms quickly
collapsing. Therefore, kept VCTS out of forecast this morning.

LONG TERM /Tuesday through Friday/...
As of 330 AM Mon...Primarily VFR conditions are forecast
through the TAF period with the only chances for sub VFR
conditions being within any shower or thunderstorm that makes
its way into ENC Tue afternoon and evening and again on Thurs.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Tonight/...
As of 1030 PM Monday...SW winds at 10-15 kt will persist until a
gust front moves through the region over the next couple of
hours from the north, and a back door cold front follows through
early this morning. The train of boundaries will make winds
variable over night, gusting near 25 kts at times, particularly
for northern waters and sounds. The predominant flow behind the
backdoor cold front will result in winds quickly switching to
become more northeasterly. The gust front has been handled with
a Marine Weather Statement valid till 1215 AM Tuesday. Seas
between the capes are expected to remain at 4-5 ft for much of
the night, decreasing to 3-4 feet by Tuesday afternoon.

LONG TERM /Tuesday through Friday/...
As of 510 AM Mon... Cold front will stall along the southern
periphery of our waters in Tue keeping the gradient light and
allowing winds to generally remain around 5-10 kts across all
waters. WInds to the south of the front will be SE-E while to
the north wind direction will be NE-E. Front lifts north as a
warm front Tue night bringing a threat for some scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms as well as shifting the winds
to a S-SW direction at 10-15 kts. Winds increase slightly to
15-20 kts out ahead of an approaching cold front with winds then
shifting THur night behind the front back to a N`rly direction.
Seas across our coastal waters generally remain around 2-4 ft
through the period, occasionally getting to 5 ft along the Gulf
Stream waters.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...OJC/RJ
SHORT TERM...OJC/RJ
LONG TERM...RCF
AVIATION...MS/RCF
MARINE...RCF/OJC/RJ