


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Spokane, WA
Issued by NWS Spokane, WA
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270 FXUS66 KOTX 130526 AFDOTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 1026 PM PDT Sat Jul 12 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Continued warming through the weekend. - Hot, dry, and gusty winds leading to elevated to critical fire weather conditions Sunday and Monday. - Strong cold front from the north late Monday delivering windy conditions. - A chance of showers and much cooler over the Idaho Panhandle on Tuesday && .SYNOPSIS... Hot temperatures will occur on Sunday with high temperatures in the 90s except near 100 for the warmest locations. Sunday and Monday fire weather concerns will increase due to the hot, dry, and gusty winds. && .DISCUSSION... Tonight through Tuesday: An active period is in store as ensembles continue to trend stronger with an upper trough and embedded closed low sending a stronger cold front into the region from the north. On Sunday ahead of this trough winds will become locally breezy in the afternoon for elevated fire weather conditions. But this will be enhanced further near the Cascades as an enhanced marine push increases the winds further for critical fire weather conditions. The Fire Weather Watch for the Wenatchee, Chelan, Winthrop, and surrounding area has been upgraded to a Red Flag Warning. On Monday, the focus shifts to the cold front from the north. There remains some model differences with the precise timing, and location of the closed low that will ultimately impact convection potential over NE Washington and the ID Panhandle, as well as the strength of the winds. This type of pattern in the past has produced high winds in the Okanogan Valley if everything lines up just right. Currently, the bulk of the solutions show the front reaching northern WA in the afternoon which asks to decrease the potential thermal/pressure gradient between rain cooled air in southern BC and the warm conditions to the south across the Columbia Basin. Thus the forecast leans towards 40-55 MPH gusts for the Okanogan Valley, but if everything lines up perfectly (like the 12z GFS run) gusts to 60-65 MPH could be achieved around Omak and Oroville. This pattern also could lead to isolated 40-50 MPH gusts over NE Washington producing localized wind damage and power outages and fire starts. But given lower confidence in coverage of these higher gusts, and possible convection with showers and isolated thunderstorms, will hold off on a Fire Weather Watch for NE Washington. But for the Okanogan Valley, down onto the Waterville Plateau, Wenatchee area, and Moses Lake area critical fire weather conditions are possible on Monday and thus an added Fire Weather Watch will be issued. These winds may also kick up patchy blowing dust on the Waterville Plateau and Moses Lake area. The front will also bring an enhanced push of wind through the Purcell Trench of North Idaho Monday evening, with gusts to 40 MPH expected. Tuesday as the low pushes southeast a lingering northeast pressure gradient will lead to breezy conditions, with a chance of showers over NE WA/N Idaho Panhandle depending on how far west the low tracks. Temperatures will be cooler Tuesday as well behind the cold front. Wednesday through Saturday: Temperatures moderate again along with a dry pattern as an upper trough over British Columbia provides a dry west-northwest flow. JW && .AVIATION... 06Z TAFS: VFR conditions will prevail across the Inland Northwest this weekend. Expect high cirrus clouds at times. Breezy west winds develop through the Cascade gaps with gusts 20-28kts Sunday afternoon. In the Basin and Spokane area, gusts will be closer to 20kts or less. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: High confidence that VFR conditions will continue at all TAF sites. SB ----------------------- Confidence descriptors: Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... Spokane 64 97 66 93 61 82 / 0 0 0 0 10 10 Coeur d`Alene 64 95 64 91 60 76 / 0 0 0 0 20 20 Pullman 59 92 61 89 56 82 / 0 0 0 0 0 10 Lewiston 70 102 71 99 69 90 / 0 0 0 0 0 10 Colville 55 97 55 90 49 79 / 0 0 0 10 30 20 Sandpoint 58 92 60 86 56 72 / 0 0 0 20 50 40 Kellogg 66 92 68 88 61 76 / 0 0 0 0 30 30 Moses Lake 66 102 68 96 66 88 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Wenatchee 73 100 73 94 69 89 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Omak 66 101 65 91 63 90 / 0 0 0 0 10 10 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT Monday for Lower Garfield and Asotin Counties-Moses Lake Area-Okanogan Valley-Spokane Area-Upper Columbia Basin-Waterville Plateau-Wenatchee Area. Fire Weather Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday evening for Foothills of Central Washington Cascades (Zone 705)-Methow Valley (Zone 704)-Okanogan Valley (Zone 703)-Waterville Plateau (Zone 706)-Western Columbia Basin (Zone 707). Red Flag Warning from 2 PM to 9 PM PDT Sunday for East Washington Central Cascades (Zone 696)-Foothills of Central Washington Cascades (Zone 705)-Methow Valley (Zone 704)-Waterville Plateau (Zone 706). ID...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT Monday for Coeur d`Alene Area- Lewiston Area. && $$