022
FXUS66 KOTX 122254
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
354 PM PDT Sat Jul 12 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Continued warming through the weekend.

- Hot, dry, and gusty winds leading to elevated to critical fire
  weather conditions Sunday and Monday.

- Strong cold front from the north late Monday delivering windy
  conditions.

- A chance of showers and much cooler over the Idaho Panhandle
  on Tuesday

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Hot temperatures will occur on Sunday with high temperatures in
the 90s except near 100 for the warmest locations. Sunday and
Monday fire weather concerns will increase due to the hot, dry,
and gusty winds.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Tuesday: An active period is in store as
ensembles continue to trend stronger with an upper trough and
embedded closed low sending a stronger cold front into the
region from the north.

On Sunday ahead of this trough winds will become locally breezy
in the afternoon for elevated fire weather conditions. But this
will be enhanced further near the Cascades as an enhanced
marine push increases the winds further for critical fire
weather conditions. The Fire Weather Watch for the Wenatchee,
Chelan, Winthrop, and surrounding area has been upgraded to a
Red Flag Warning.

On Monday, the focus shifts to the cold front from the north.
There remains some model differences with the precise timing,
and location of the closed low that will ultimately impact
convection potential over NE Washington and the ID Panhandle, as
well as the strength of the winds. This type of pattern in the
past has produced high winds in the Okanogan Valley if
everything lines up just right. Currently, the bulk of the
solutions show the front reaching northern WA in the afternoon
which asks to decrease the potential thermal/pressure gradient
between rain cooled air in southern BC and the warm conditions
to the south across the Columbia Basin. Thus the forecast leans
towards 40-55 MPH gusts for the Okanogan Valley, but if
everything lines up perfectly (like the 12z GFS run) gusts to
60-65 MPH could be achieved around Omak and Oroville. This
pattern also could lead to isolated 40-50 MPH gusts over NE
Washington producing localized wind damage and power outages and
fire starts. But given lower confidence in coverage of these
higher gusts, and possible convection with showers and isolated
thunderstorms, will hold off on a Fire Weather Watch for NE
Washington. But for the Okanogan Valley, down onto the
Waterville Plateau, Wenatchee area, and Moses Lake area critical
fire weather conditions are possible on Monday and thus an
added Fire Weather Watch will be issued. These winds may also
kick up patchy blowing dust on the Waterville Plateau and Moses
Lake area. The front will also bring an enhanced push of wind
through the Purcell Trench of North Idaho Monday evening, with
gusts to 40 MPH expected.

Tuesday as the low pushes southeast a lingering northeast
pressure gradient will lead to breezy conditions, with a chance
of showers over NE WA/N Idaho Panhandle depending on how far
west the low tracks. Temperatures will be cooler Tuesday as well
behind the cold front.

Wednesday through Saturday: Temperatures moderate again along
with a dry pattern as an upper trough over British Columbia
provides a dry west-northwest flow. JW

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: VFR conditions will prevail across the Inland
Northwest this weekend. Expect high cirrus clouds, especially
across the portions of the region. Breezy west winds through the
Cascade gaps with gusts up to 25 kts between 00-03Z late this
afternoon, and again Sunday afternoon.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: High confidence
that VFR conditions will continue at all TAF sites. JW

-----------------------

Confidence descriptors:
Low - Less than a 30 percent chance
Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance
High - Greater than a 70 percent chance

For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane
airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our
webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Spokane        64  97  66  93  61  82 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  64  95  64  91  60  76 /   0   0   0   0  20  20
Pullman        59  92  61  89  56  82 /   0   0   0   0   0  10
Lewiston       70 102  71  99  69  90 /   0   0   0   0   0  10
Colville       55  97  55  90  49  79 /   0   0   0  10  30  20
Sandpoint      58  92  60  86  56  72 /   0   0   0  20  50  40
Kellogg        66  92  68  88  61  76 /   0   0   0   0  30  30
Moses Lake     66 102  68  96  66  88 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      73 100  73  94  69  89 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Omak           66 101  65  91  63  90 /   0   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT Monday for Lower Garfield and
     Asotin Counties-Moses Lake Area-Okanogan Valley-Spokane
     Area-Upper Columbia Basin-Waterville Plateau-Wenatchee
     Area.
     Fire Weather Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday
     evening for Foothills of Central Washington Cascades
     (Zone 705)-Methow Valley (Zone 704)-Okanogan Valley (Zone
     703)-Waterville Plateau (Zone 706)-Western Columbia Basin
     (Zone 707).
     Red Flag Warning from 2 PM to 9 PM PDT Sunday for East
     Washington Central Cascades (Zone 696)-Foothills of
     Central Washington Cascades (Zone 705)-Methow Valley
     (Zone 704)-Waterville Plateau (Zone 706).
ID...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT Monday for Coeur d`Alene Area-
     Lewiston Area.

&&

$$