249
FXUS65 KVEF 090248
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
748 PM PDT Wed May 8 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Gusty north-northwest winds will continue through
Thursday evening. Temperatures will rebound back to near-average by
the end of the work week and will continue to increase through the
weekend into next week.

&&

.UPDATE...Gusty northerly wind conditions continue across the
region this evening but we are not seeing any significant wind
speeds reported. The north winds are forecast to increase again
later this evening and continue overnight. The most problematic
area includes far southeastern Lincoln County, far northeastern
Clark County, far northwestern Mohave County where gusts over 40
mph are forecast in channeled areas along and north of the I-15.
It looks like we will see low temperatures in the morning dropping
back into the upper 50s again in Las Vegas for a cool beginning of
the day. The forecast looks in decent shape so there will be no
updates needed this evening.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...311 PM PDT Wed May 8 2024...

.DISCUSSION...Today through next Wednesday.

Gusty north-northwest winds between 25 and 35 mph will continue
across the forecast area through Thursday evening as a result of
tightened north-south surface pressure gradients between a growing
ridge of high pressure over the eastern Pacific and a closed low
over the central United States. This closed low will retrograde
westward through the remainder of the work week, putting the center
of the low directly overhead by Friday.

Moisture associated with this system is generally meager, though
PWATs will increase to around 0.40" across the southern Great Basin,
which is around normal for this time of year. This moisture coupled
with CAPE values between 250 and 500 J/kg will increase chances of
thunderstorms in the southern Great Basin. That said, the low levels
will remain very dry, with less than a tenth of an inch of rain
expected to reach the ground. These ingredients are likely to result
in strong, gusty winds originating from any thunderstorms that form,
which will exacerbate chances of lightning-related fire starts and
spread. Best chances of dry lightning exist across Lincoln County on
Thursday and Friday.

The eastern Pacific ridge will win out going into the weekend,
allowing heights to rise and temperatures to increase to above-
average by Sunday. Temperatures will continue to climb through the
week. Las Vegas has a 13% chance of reaching 100F for the first time
this year on Wednesday. On average, Las Vegas`s first 100F is
observed on May 24th.

&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...North-northeast winds will
continue into to evening with speeds between 10-20 knots. Winds will
likely bounce between 010-040 through the remainder of the
afternoon. Winds will decrease this evening with speeds dropping to
around 10 knots or less, which will continue through the overnight
hours. Overall, winds will be lighter on Thursday, but the direction
will be northeast after 16z with speeds around 10 knots with
occasional gusts up to 18 knots. FEW-SCT clouds down to around 8k
feet, mainly over the higher terrain.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...North to northeast winds will remain through the
afternoon across most TAF sites. Speeds will generally range from 10-
20 knots with a few locations, especially near KEED/KIFP seeing
gusts between 30-35 knots through the afternoon. Winds will diminish
overnight with most sites seeing gusts drop below 15 knots. North to
northeast winds will redevelop Thursday, but overall speeds will be
lower with most areas seeing winds between 10-20 knots. FEW-SCT
clouds between 8-10k feet Thursday.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Salmen

DISCUSSION...Varian
AVIATION...Gorelow

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