Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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071
FXUS61 KAKQ 261456
AFDAKQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
1056 AM EDT Thu Apr 26 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak high pressure returns today. The next area of low pressure
crosses the local area late tonight through Friday. Mainly dry
weather is on tap this weekend and early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 1055 AM EDT Thursday...

Weak high pressure is now covering the local area allowing for
dry conditions. Clouds have continued to thin late this morning
for a partly sunny sky most locations. A brief break from the
recent unsettled wx occurs today...although expecting clouds to
begin arriving/increasing from the SSW this afternoon as the
next area of low pressure tracks through TN/nrn AL/nrn GA.
Expect most areas to be dry through the day...although would not
rule out ISOLD SHRAS late invof far interior NE NC after
21Z/26. Highs mainly 70-75F...except 60s at the beaches.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 245 AM EDT Thursday...

A quick increase in PoPs (to 40-80%) Thu night (mainly after
06z) as lo pres enters the FA from the SW. Keeping PoPs 50-70%
NE half of the FA Fri morning...tapering to 30-40% far SW.
Models show ribbon of CAPE (to 500-750 J/KG) moving across the
FA late tonight/Fri morning w/ period of enhanced UVM. Have
added SLGT CHC-CHC tstms from about 06Z-18Z/26. Locally heavy
rain is possible. The low pressure area lifts to the NE of the
local area Friday afternoon...however will be keeping 20-30%
(for SHRAS/tstms) as a lo pres trough remains invof the FA.
Otherwise...mostly cloudy Fri morning, then VRB clouds-becoming
partly sunny in the afternoon. Lows tonight from near 50 N to
the m-u50s S. Highs Friday from the u60s NW and at the coast to
the l-m70s central/southern locales.

Improved conditions Fri night and Sat, although do expect a weak
cold front to approach from the NW late Sat afternoon. Partly
to mostly clear during this time. Lows Fri night from the u40s
NW to the m50s SE. Highs Saturday mainly in the m-u70s, except
u60s at the beaches.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 245 AM EDT Thursday...

Weak cold front crosses the local area Sat evening...possibly
accompanied by ISOLD SHRAS...esp N and NE locales. Dry/cooler
and breezy Sun. After that...a period of delightful spring
weather on tap early next week as hi pres sets up over the
local area Mon then off the Mid Atlantic coast Tue/Wed.
Expecting a significant warming trend Mon-Wed.

Lows Sat/Sun nights near 40 NW to near 50 SE. Highs Sun in the
60s, mid 60s-lwr 70s Mon. Lows Mon night mid 40s NW to lwr 50s
SE. Highs Tues 75-80F. Lows Tues night in the 50s. Highs Wed
upr 70s-lwr 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 1055 AM EDT Thursday...

VFR conditions expected today though BKN clouds 5-10 kft will
spread into the region from the WSW this afternoon. The next
low pressure system will impact the region (by late) tonight
into Fri afternoon w/ flight restrictions likely due to lower
BKN-OVC CIGS (at least times of low end MVFR) and SHRAS (low
prob for ISOLD/SCT tstms). Mainly VFR conditions expected Sat-
Sun.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 420 AM EDT Thursday...

SCA Headlines remain in effect until 7 pm or 10 pm this evening
for the coastal waters, due to lingering long period E/SE swell
of 10 seconds. Seas 5-7 ft early this morning, will subside to 3
to 4 ft tonight.

Early this morning, one low pressure area was over New England,
with weak high pressure cntrd over the upper midwest. Another
low pressure area was over the middle/lower MS valley. NW winds
5-15 kt this morning, will shift to the SE or S arnd 10 kt or
less during the mid/late aftn hrs into this evening, as weak
sfc high pressure builds in fm the NNW. The next low pressure
area will affect the waters tonight thru Fri, as it tracks fm
the SE U.S. thru the local area on Fri, and off to the NE by
Fri night. Another cold front crosses the waters Sat night,
increasing winds close to SCA levels, then diminishing Sun as
high pressure returns.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for ANZ650-
     652-654.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for ANZ656-
     658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/JDM
NEAR TERM...ALB/JDM
SHORT TERM...ALB/JDM
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...ALB/JDM
MARINE...LKB/TMG



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