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000
FXUS64 KBRO 260846
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
346 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 344 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

An established broad mid-level trough covering the western half of
the nation with a ridge building from the NE Gulf of Mexico north
along the eastern third CONUS looks to maintain a tight pressure
gradient over Deep South Texas today and Saturday. Deepening surface
pressure over the Central Plains supports a low level jet (LLJ) of
30-40kts today with another lee side low developing tonight and
Saturday strengthening the LLJ to 45 knots. A Wind Advisory has been
issued for the Lower RGV 11 AM-7 PM Today with another probable wind
advisory for Saturday with lager areal coverage as a broader and
slightly stronger LLJ is shown by the latest model suite.

The breezy to windy southerly winds maintains a steady flow of Gulf
moisture and warm to hot temperatures. Expect above normal highs and
lows the next two days with heat indices having a medium to high (30-
70%) probability of exceeding 100 degrees Saturday.  A few light
showers are possible early this morning with a weak disturbance
passing overhead, otherwise moisture depth is limited and forcing
of the of the low level moisture today or tomorrow is absent with
a cold front and dryline remaining well north and west of the
South Texas respectively.

Along the coast the strong southerly winds maintain rough surf and a
high risk of rip current.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 344 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

The tight pressure gradient continues to remain a factor in the long
term forecast for Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley at the
start, but not expecting Wind Advisories to be needed as the current
forecasted winds are in the range of 20-25 mph. As we move into the
work week, an upper-level trough will into Northern Texas and move
eastward, which will result in a zonal flow like pattern for a few
days with a weak mid-level ridge sliding over the area by Wednesday.
This mid-level ridge is not expected to stay over the area for long,
as it will move eastward allowing for a zonal flow aloft to return
to by the end of the work week.

Meanwhile, at the surface, southerly to southeasterly flow is
expected to continue, which will funnel more warm, humid air to the
region. While the moisture advection does remain constant, the
opportunities for rain appear do not look very promising. The
greatest opportunity in the long term forecast period appears to be
late Monday into Tuesday. A series of shortwaves will be moving
through the upper levels that could help the development of
convection along the Sierra Madre Mountains. Some of these showers
and thunderstorms could make it to Deep South Texas and the Rio
Grande Valley before they dissipate. However, rain chances remain in
the range of 20 to 30 percent, as these types of showers and
thunderstorms often do collapse once they move away from the
mountains.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1239 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

MVFR ceilings increasing and spread westward overnight persisting
through Friday morning. Low probability and short-duration of IFR
is shown by some high resolution around sunrise with confidence
also low of the lower ceilings occurring with models indicating
surface inversion rising as winds increase overnight. Ceilings are
expected to rise to VFR with lower clouds breaking up west to
east for the afternoon before the marine layer moves back inland
shortly after sunset with MVFR cloud decks increasing. Pressure
gradient remains strong with southerly wind gusts increasing near
25 knots mid-morning peaking between 3-35 knots for the
afternoon. Winds remain rather brisk Friday evening.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 344 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

Today through Saturday: An already strong pressure gradient is
expected to strengthen tonight as a series of low pressure areas
extend from the South to the Central Plains. No let up in the strong
southerly winds with seas continuing to build through Saturday.
Small Craft advisories already in place to are likely to be extended
tonight and Saturday.

saturday Night through Thursday...Hazardous conditions to start
off on Saturday night due the elevated winds and seas from the
tight pressure gradient. Improvements in the marine conditions
will start to occur on Sunday afternoon, but Small Craft
Advisories might be needed through the weekend and into Monday.
Light to moderate winds with moderate seas through Thursday, but
there is a chance of Small Craft Exercise Caution for needed
during the later part of the the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             90  75  90  75 /  10   0   0   0
HARLINGEN               90  73  90  73 /  10   0   0   0
MCALLEN                 92  76  93  76 /  10   0   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY         94  74  96  74 /  10   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      81  75  81  75 /  10   0   0   0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     87  74  84  74 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Wind Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening
     for TXZ254-255-354-355.

     High Rip Current Risk through this evening for TXZ451-454-455.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for GMZ130-132-
     135-150-155-170-175.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...59-GB
LONG TERM....64-Katz
AVIATION...59-GB