Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 260248
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
948 PM CDT Fri May 25 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 947 PM CDT Fri May 25 2018

As was expected, the combo of the loss of daytime heating and/or
the movement of earlier activity out of our CWA to the east has
now ended the threat of thunderstorm activity for the remainder of
tonight (our last isolated strong storm exited southeast York
County about 45 min ago). With no southerly low level jet to speak
of tonight, and certainly no appreciable forcing in the mid-
levels, we are feeling pretty confident in the going dry forecast
for the next 12-24 hours and beyond.

UPDATE Issued at 725 PM CDT Fri May 25 2018

Sure enough, despite virtually zero "obvious" forcing aloft, the
combo of brute heating (hottest day of 2018 so far in much of
south central Nebraska), decent instability with mixed-layer CAPE
at least 1000-2000 J/kg and weak convergence along a fairly subtle
southwest-northeast oriented surface trough, has popped isolated
strong to perhaps even a marginally severe storm, with most of the
"action" as of this moment currently focused within
Franklin/Webster counties and also eastern Nance County. With weak
shear aloft, these are primarily "pulsy" multicell storm
structures, and so far we have received no reports of severe winds
and only very small hail. Nearly two hours ago, a brief landspout
tornado did occur BARELY outside our coverage area in far west
central Boone County. At any rate, any threat for additional
strong to perhaps isolated severe storms is not expected to last
past the 9-10 PM time frame, as this activity should (in theory)
fade pretty quickly with the loss of daytime heating.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 328 PM CDT Fri May 25 2018

The main forecast concern in the short term is 1. a very small
chance for thunderstorms late this afternoon/evening, and 2. Heat
into the weekend.

1. The latest high resolution guidance indicates the chance for
very scattered showers and thunderstorms along and west of Highway
281 into the evening hours. As of 3:15pm there is just the
slightest of CU development and a few small showers to the west.
Have added a slight chance for isolated thunderstorms to the
forecast. While instability is plentiful, shear is lacking, so
expect any activity to be driven by the heat of the day,
diminishing by mid/late evening.

2. Upper level ridging will be building in from the west and
moving across the central Plains over the weekend. Temperatures
will soar. Highs are expected in the mid to upper 90s Saturday and
Sunday. Sunday`s forecast temps are even near or exceeding current
records (See Climate Section for more details for Saturday and
Sunday). Southerly flow at the surface will also return and be
breezy across the the area for the weekend.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 328 PM CDT Fri May 25 2018

The main concern through the long term forecast continues to be
heat, with a few chances for thunderstorms. An upper trough will
continue to sit across the western half of the CONUS slowly moving
towards and across the central Plains. This upper wave will be the
main driver for any precipitation, with the best chances across
the High Plains Sunday night into Monday and then for
central/southern Nebraska Monday night into Tuesday.

Temperatures for the work week are still expected to be above
normal. Highs on Memorial Day are currently forecast to be
slightly less than the weekend`s highs, but still expecting at
least 90s. This could be impacted by cloud cover, or lack there-
of, so we could see the temperature increase over the next few
forecasts. Tuesday is cooler, back into the 80s with the chances
for precipitation. The upper level pattern breaks down some into
mid-week with another disturbance moving across the region on
Thursday. This will bring another chance for precipitation before
upper level ridging builds back in for the end of the work-week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 00Z Saturday)
Issued at 725 PM CDT Fri May 25 2018

VFR ceiling/visibility is expected to prevail throughout, with
only very limited mid-high level cloud cover. Any risk for
showers/isolated thunderstorms early this evening appears to have
already shifted south of both KGRI/KEAR, and will make no mention
of this potential in the TAF, with rain-free conditions also
expected later tonight and through the day Saturday. Wind-wise, it
will be another 24 hours of seasonably-light speeds, with rather
light/variable breezes tonight becoming a bit steadier from the
southwest and eventually south during the day Saturday, but with
sustained speeds staying at-or-below 10kt the vast majority of the
time.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 328 PM CDT Fri May 25 2018

..Record High Temperatures possible for Memorial Day Weekend..

Record High Temperatures for May 26th
Grand Island....100 degrees in 2012 (Forecasting 96 degrees)
Hastings........100 degrees in 2012 (Forecasting 95 degrees)

Record High Temperatures for May 27th
Grand Island....97 degrees in 1912 (Forecasting 94 degrees)
Hastings........93 degrees in 2006, 1974, 1913 (Forecasting 94
degrees)

..Warmest final week of May on record at Grand Island/Hastings?..

Although it`s obviously not a "sure thing" yet, our latest forecast
for May 25-31 indicates that both Grand Island and Hastings (our
two primary long-term climate data sites) will experience the
overall-hottest last week of May on record! Listed below is the
projected May 25-31 average temperature (average of the daily
highs/lows) for this year, and the current warmest on record for
that week:

- Grand Island airport (records date back 122 years to 1896)

1) 2018...77.3 degrees (PROJECTED from current forecast!)
2) 1926...75.9 degrees
3) 1921...75.9 degrees
4) 2014...75.6 degrees
5) 1934...75.3 degrees

- Hastings airport (records include 109 years dating to 1907)

1) 2018...77.4 degrees (PROJECTED from current forecast!)
2) 1926...75.1 degrees
3) 2014...74.6 degrees
4) 1913...74.5 degrees
5) 2006...73.7 degrees

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&

$$

UPDATES...Pfannkuch
SHORT TERM...Billings Wright
LONG TERM...Billings Wright
AVIATION...Pfannkuch
CLIMATE...Pfannkuch/Billings Wright



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