Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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FXUS61 KILN 211429

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1029 AM EDT Wed Mar 21 2018

Low pressure is moving slowly east today allowing light snow to
linger for a few more hours. High pressure and a drier airmass
will build into the region Thursday and Friday. An approaching
low pressure system will bring a mix of rain and snow to the
region for the weekend.


Light snow that persists in the moist circulation around
departing low pressure will show a gradual diminishing trend
today as the low moves east to be absorbed into a coastal low.
Accumulations range from around 6 inches in West Central Ohio to
1-4 inches metro areas down to under an inch southeast. Affect
on travel was mitigated by warmer antecedent temperatures that
limited accumulations. Only a few more tenths of an inch should
be observed as snowfall rates decrease while moisture and
forcing abate.

Snow will end this afternoon as the low progresses farther east
and drier air works in on a northerly flow. A slight diurnal
rise in temperatures to the mid 30s will allow some melting of
snow. Will keep warning and advisory for now with early
cancellation possible due to improving conditions.


Clouds will begin to clear from the west later tonight with
mostly sunny skies expected on Thursday as high pressure and a
drier airmass begins to build in to the area. Lows tonight will
be in the low to mid 20s with highs on Thursday ranging from
the upper 30s to around 40 in the northeast to the low to mid
40s across the south.


Northwest flow will continue Thursday night into Friday with another
upper level disturbance diving southeast towards New York. This will
push another cold front through the area Friday morning. This type
of weather pattern setup will allow for chilly conditions with highs
in the 40s, but plenty of sun as the Ohio Valley remains in strong
upper level subsidence or ageostrophic convergence.

On Saturday a potent upper level low off the Pacific Northwest coast
will bring another wave across the region. The wave will be embedded
in a general upper level ridge which will help push the wave
southeast of the Ohio Valley (along with a long wave trough axis
over the Northeast). Overall, global models have been rather
unstable with the strength and path of this wave which is
unsurprising given its origin. The idea is that a surface low
pressure will form Saturday in Missouri and head towards south/
central Kentucky Sunday morning. During the day Saturday the warm
air advection wing/ widespread isentropic upglide will commence
across the region. The latest GFS and ECMWF would support all snow
for Ohio with northern Kentucky switching between snow and rain.
Given the uncertainty though in the eventual track of the shortwave
have just broad brushed snowfall totals.

Sunday the wave will move east of the area allowing for clearing
skies with highs in the upper 40s. On Monday the upper level low
that was off the west coast of the United States will push east with
mid level riding working in over the Ohio Valley. This means
temperatures will be on the rise with the next batch of
precipitation moving into the area Tuesday and Wednesday. Confidence
here remains low though as the eventual track of the upper level low
is uncertain. The GFS and CMC has the front moving through on
Wednesday were as the ECMWF has the front washing south across the
area on Thursday evening.


Low pressure will continue to push east of the region through
this afternoon. This will allow for snow across the area this
morning to begin to taper off from west to east as we head into
this afternoon. Until then, we will see IFR cigs and vsbys
prevail through the first few hours of the TAF period. We should
then see a gradual improvement into MVFR this afternoon. High
pressure will begin to build in from the west tonight into
Thursday with VFR conditions expected through the second half of
the TAF period.

OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings and visibilities are possible Saturday
and Saturday night.


OH...Winter Weather Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for OHZ026-
     Winter Storm Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for OHZ070-
KY...Winter Weather Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for
     Winter Storm Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for
IN...Winter Weather Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for INZ050-
     Winter Storm Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for INZ066-


NEAR TERM...Coniglio
LONG TERM...Haines
AVIATION...JGL is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.