171
FXUS64 KMEG 142255
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
555 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 355 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024

A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible through early
evening, mainly over northeast Mississippi. Scattered showers will
continue overnight as an upper level low pressure system moves
across the area. Dry conditions will return on Wednesday as we
remain in between systems. More unsettled weather will return
Thursday and persist into early Saturday. A mostly dry weekend is
anticipated with isolated light afternoon showers each day.
Temperatures will trend much warmer early next week with readings
in the upper 80s to 90 degrees.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Monday)
Issued at 355 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect for the eastern
third of the forecast area through 8PM tonight. We have had
several reports of severe and subsevere hail with storms,
however, winds have remained subsevere. The threat of strong to
severe storms will continue through early evening as a vort max
pivots through the Mid-South. The threat of strong storms will
subside after sundown due to the loss of daytime heating.

Scattered showers and a few isolated storms are possible across
the Mid-South through tomorrow morning as the main upper low
pivots into Middle Tennessee. Thereafter, dry conditions and
pleasant temperatures will persist for Wednesday. Expect highs in
the upper 70s and lower 80s.

Unsettled weather will return on Thursday as we remain in a split
flow pattern. A northern and southern stream shortwave will drop
into the Mississippi Valley on and slowly phase over the Mid-South
through early Saturday. This will keep a moderate to high chance
of showers and thunderstorms over the region through the early
part of the weekend. Weak ridging appears likely Sunday and into
early next week. Warm and humid conditions look to develop over
the region during this time. Highs will be in the upper 80s with
dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s.

AC3

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 555 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024

VFR conditions expected for the start of the period. VCSH/VCTS
expected to diminish into early this evening. Ensemble guidance
indicates a potential for MVFR ceilings to develop towards sunrise
Wednesday, then lift to VFR towards late Wednesday morning. Light
W winds tonight will veer NW and increase to 7-10 kts on
Wednesday.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...AC3
AVIATION...CJC