080
FXUS64 KSHV 151726
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1226 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1158 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

 - Mostly dry conditions will prevail through at least Thursday
   morning, with only slight chances across our northern zones
   today.

 - Heat Advisories return on Tuesday and may extend into
   Wednesday.

 - All eyes remain hyper-focused on the tropics as there is a 40%
   chance of some tropical development across the northern Gulf
   Coast by the end of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1158 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

Although radar imagery has gone quiet early this afternoon, models
continue to suggest the idea that there could be some isolated
convection across our northern zones this afternoon so I have
maintained some mention of PoPs across this area through this
evening. Otherwise, mostly dry conditions have settled in to the
region and will remain in place through at least Thursday morning.
Despite the heat today, I have elected to lay in the bed we made
and not issue a Heat Advisory for this afternoon as I still think
we will be borderline at best. I was on the fence for Wednesday
too, and after some consideration, I decided to go with a Heat
Advisory for portions of our eastern zones. Please see the latest
headlines for details on exact location. Pretty good chance that
Heat Advisories could be extended into Thursday for some portions
of the area as heat index values will remain at critical levels.

Our next good chance of any precipitation for portions of our area
won`t come till later in the week and in the form of tropical
moisture. There is some uncertainty with this system, especially
with the model runs today. I don`t think models will start to
level out till the system is fully in the Gulf and we can see how
it starts to interact with the waters there. Regardless, NBM
continues to show increased rain chances from the system late
Thursday and into Friday, but the overall theme of location and
timing will be refined through the week as the picture becomes
more clear. This system will also play a major role in what our
temperatures this upcoming weekend will look like, so just
continue to monitor the forecast for the latest. /33/

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 632 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

For the 15/06Z TAFs, VFR conditions prevail with scattered high
clouds, aside from possible brief CIG reductions where winds
become light to near calm. Any reductions will rebound to VFR by
late morning, continuing through the afternoon. Thunderstorm
development during the day looks to remain well north of I-20,
with impacts to KTXK and possibly KELD. South winds will increase
to sustained speeds of 5 to 10 kts and become southwesterly
during the day, with gusts of up to 15 kts possible.

/26/

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1134 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

Activation of storm spotter are not expected today through
tonight.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  79  97  77  98 /   0   0   0   0
MLU  77  96  76  95 /   0   0   0  20
DEQ  72  93  71  94 /  10   0   0   0
TXK  76  97  75  98 /   0   0   0   0
ELD  74  96  73  96 /  10   0   0  10
TYR  74  92  73  93 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  75  95  73  96 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  74  93  72  92 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Wednesday for ARZ073.

LA...Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Wednesday for LAZ005-006-
     013-014-019>022.

OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...33
AVIATION...26