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000
FXUS64 KSHV 200901
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
401 AM CDT Sun May 20 2018

.SHORT TERM.../Today through Monday Night/
Low stratus is already beginning to return northward this morning
across deep east Texas and will spread farther north and east as
we approach daybreak. Looking out to our north and west, an active
radar scope reveals widespread convection approaching the DFW metro
area along a slow-moving cold front. Farther south, a remnant MCV
continues to drift northeast toward the metroplex as well. Exactly
what this spells for our region today is still a bit in question,
but the latest run of the HRRR seems to have a good handle on the
scenario with additional convection being generated along a large
outflow boundary emanating out ahead of the front, then likely
merging with the eastward advancing MCV later this morning. The
convection should track east of I-35, arriving in northeast TX
toward midday. Therefore, have included slight to mid chance POPs
across our westernmost zones today and maintained slight chance
POPs farther east where mainly isolated diurnal convection is
expected during afternoon peak heating, when temperatures will
range from the mid to upper 80s over the northwest to lower 90s
across our southeast half where more sunshine is expected between
breaks in the clouds. Convection is expected to gradually taper
off with heating loss through this evening, but the advancing cold
front will continue pushing southeast before stalling across our
region later Monday morning.

The front will continue to provide a focus for showers and storms
through Monday with slightly higher POPs by comparison to today.
The boundary will eventually wash out later on Monday evening as
convection will largely be diurnally driven once again so expect
much of the same with a gradual downward trend in activity into
the evening and overnight hours. The good news with this pattern
shift is twofold, much welcome rainfall and a slight drop-off in
temperatures as a result of the increased cloud cover and showers.
Suffice it to say record highs should not be in jeopardy over the
next few days which is certainly a welcome change from the recent
heat we`ve experienced. /19/

.LONG TERM.../Tuesday through Sunday/

Weak upper ridging is expected to prevail through the middle of the
upcoming work week. There will be enough moisture in place to
interact with daytime heating to produce scattered daytime showers
and thunderstorms through much of next week as a result. As we move
into the later half of the upcoming work week, we will watch for the
development of an upper level trough across the Central Gulf of
Mexico and this feature is expected to move slowly northward towards
the SE LA Gulf Coast, further enhancing the possibility of scattered
convection by late week into the weekend.

There continues to be good agreement between the medium range progs
that a deepening trough will develop across the Central/Northern
Plains late next week, bringing with it a cold front that will begin
moving into our region of the country next weekend. This trough
should help to lift the Northern Gulf trough northward further
enhancing the precipitation process across our region, especially
the eastern half of our region next weekend with the precipitation
trying to taper off in the wake of the cold front late Day 7 of the
forecast.

Lowered daytime highs a degree or so by the middle and later half of
next week given the cloud and precipitation coverage expected but
left overnight lows pretty much unchanged, in the upper 60s to the
lower 70s through much of the extended period with slightly cooler
temperatures expected in the wake of the cold front by late next
weekend.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  91  72  90  70 /  20  20  40  20
MLU  92  72  90  69 /  20  20  50  20
DEQ  87  68  88  66 /  30  30  30  20
TXK  90  70  87  69 /  20  30  40  20
ELD  90  70  88  67 /  20  20  50  20
TYR  88  70  88  70 /  40  30  30  10
GGG  89  70  89  69 /  20  20  40  10
LFK  91  70  90  69 /  20  20  20  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

19/13