Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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ACUS01 KWNS 191953
SWODY1
SPC AC 191951

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0251 PM CDT Thu Apr 19 2018

Valid 192000Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FAR
SOUTH-CENTRAL NM AND FAR WEST TX...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms may impact parts of southern New
Mexico and far west Texas late this afternoon and evening with a
risk for downburst winds and hail.

...Discussion...
This outlook update removed low-severe probabilities from central NM
based on afternoon surface observations indicating a dearth of
low-level moisture (dewpoints in the 10-15 degrees F range) and
recent HRRR guidance suggestive of lower thunderstorm coverage
(isolated at best) across the central NM I-25 corridor.  Slightly
richer moisture farther south near El Paso (dewpoints in the 30s)
perhaps may result in higher thunderstorm coverage and the
possibility for a stronger thunderstorm.

..Smith.. 04/19/2018

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Thu Apr 19 2018/

...New Mexico and far west Texas...
A southern-stream upper low will continue eastward over the southern
Great Basin and lower Colorado River Valley toward the Four Corners
vicinity by early Friday, with downstream height falls occurring as
far east as the southern High Plains. The main limitation for
today`s severe risk will be meager low-level moisture, although
moisture will gradually increase and somewhat higher moisture
content will be focused along the interior mountains and higher
terrain of New Mexico.

At least isolated thunderstorms should develop this afternoon into
evening mainly along/just east of the mountains of interior New
Mexico and far west Texas. Where storms do occur, steep lapse rates
and weak buoyancy might support some hail, while a relatively
deep/well-mixed boundary layer could yield severe-caliber wind gusts
this afternoon into evening.

$$


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