Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 231642

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1242 PM EDT Mon Apr 23 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.


The monsoon trough passes through Sierra Leone near 08N13W, to
04N15W. The ITCZ continues from 04N15W to 01N30W to Brazil near
01S46W. Scattered moderate convection is from 00N-04N between
22W-35W. Isolated moderate convection is from 03S-03N between



As of 1500 UTC, a cold front extends from the Florida Panhandle
near 31N85W to the central Gulf of Mexico near 24N90W to S of
Tampico Mexico near 21N97W. Scattered moderate convection is over
the SE Gulf from 23N-25N between 85W-87W. Scattered showers are
over most of the Florida Peninsula. More scattered showers are
S of the front near Tampico Mexico. A surface trough is over the
Bay of Campeche from 22N90W to 18N93W depicted by a wind shift.

The cold front will reach from Tampa Bay to 24N89W to the eastern
Bay of Campeche early Tue. The cold front will slow down as it
moves across the far SE Gulf and Straits of Florida early Wed
morning, then reach NW Cuba by late Wed night into early Thu.
Weak high pressure will build across the area behind the front.
Another weak cold front is expected to move to just offshore of
the Texas coast early on Thu. This cold front is expected to
reach the eastern gulf by Fri night, followed by gentle to
moderate NW to N flow.


10-20 kt trade winds are over the Caribbean Sea with strongest
winds over the central Caribbean. Scattered showers are presently
over Costa Rica and Panama. Expect afternoon and evening
thunderstorms to build shortly over Cuba, Jamaica, Hispaniola, N
Colombia, and W Venezuela during maximum diurnal heating. In the
upper levels, an upper level trough is over the central Caribbean
with upper level diffluence over the E Caribbean. Broken high
clouds are over most of the E Caribbean, E of 70W.

Atlantic Ocean high pressure will maintain fresh-to-strong trade
winds near the coast of Colombia through Tuesday. A weakening
cold front will move southeastward across the Yucatan Basin on
Tuesday night, and wash out across the NW Caribbean Sea by


A stationary front passes through 32N50W to 26N70W dissipating to
26N77W. A warm front continues to beyond 31N81W. Isolated
moderate convection is over the W Atlantic N of 27N and W of 75W.
Scattered showers are within 60 nm of the stationary front. A
large 1031 mb high is centered over the E Atlantic near 35N32W.

Near gale-force southeast wind flow is expected across the
forecast waters north of the Bahamas through Monday night, in
association with a surface low pressure center that will move
eastward across the southeastern United States. This low will
track northeastward along the Georgia and South Carolina coasts on
Tuesday. The low center will be followed by a couple of weak cold
fronts across the northwestern waters during the middle of next

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