Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXPZ20 KNHC 271606

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Tue Jul 27 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1540 UTC.


The southern part of a Caribbean Sea tropical wave extends along
79W to across Panama and to near 05N. It is moving westward at
about 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is N of 02N E of 83W
to inland northwest Colombia.

A tropical wave has its axis extending from the Gulf of Honduras
along 87W south to near 04N. It is moving westward at 10-15 kt.
Scattered showers are from 06N to 13N between 85W and 92W.

A tropical wave extends from 03N to 15N with axis near 101W,
moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
from 10N to 17N between 93W and 104W.

A tropical wave extends from 03N to a 1008 mb low near 13N116W to
18N116W, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is from 07N to 16N between 111W and 120W. This system
has a low chance of tropical cyclone formation through the next
5 days.

A tropical wave extends from 02N to 15N with axis near 128W,
moving west at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from
08N to 13N between 120W and 135W.


The monsoon trough extends from 08N79W to 09N100W to 13N116W to
10N125W. The ITCZ extends from 10N125W to 09N140W. Aside from the
convection associated with the tropical waves, scattered moderate
convection is from 07N to 13N W of 137W.


A relatively weak pressure gradient supports light to gentle
NW winds over the Baja California, Colima and Guerrero offshore
waters with seas in the 3 to 5 ft range in SW swell. Gentle light
and variable winds are over the Gulf of California, with seas to
3 ft. Winds over the Gulf of Tehuantepec are E to SE at gentle
to moderate speeds with 5-7 ft seas in SW swell. Deep
atmospheric moisture in the wake of a recent tropical wave
passing across the offshore waters of southeastern Mexico is
resulting in scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over
the Oaxaca and Chiapas offshore waters.

For the forecast, a tighter pressure gradient will develop along
the Gulf of California beginning Wed afternoon allowing for
moderate to fresh northwest winds to develop over the Baja
California offshore waters through Fri night, and for moderate to
locally fresh southeast winds over the central and southern
portions of the Gulf of California Thu night through Fri.
Moderate to locally fresh northeast to east winds will continue
to pulse throughout the week in the Gulf of Tehuantepec and will
be enhanced Thu night into Fri as low pressure develops south of
this region with the potential to develop into a tropical
depression late this week or over the weekend while moving in a
WNW direction.


Moderate to locally fresh S to SW winds will continue S of the
monsoon trough through the forecast period along with SW swell
that will build seas to 5-7 ft. Gentle to moderate NE to E winds
will dominate the Gulf of Papagayo and adjacent waters through
Sat night, with seas to 5 ft in SW swell.

The weather over the offshore waters of Costa Rica and Colombia
will be unsettled over the next few days due to the passage of a
tropical wave. Low pressure is forecast to develop a few hundred
miles S or SE of the Gulf of Tehuantepec in a few days with the
potential of some gradual development late this week or weekend
while the system moves WNW.


An area of fresh north winds is over the northern waters north
of 24N and between 127W-136W. Seas there are in the 5-7 ft
range. These winds are forecast to gradually shift westward
through the rest of the week as weak low pressure forms near
28N125W. The low pressure will weaken to a trough late Wed night.

Elsewhere, gentle to moderate northeast to east trades are
expected through late week, except south of about 18N, where the
low pressure that is on the tropical wave along 116W as discussed
above will move westward, with some possible gradual
development. Expect some increase of winds and seas over the
waters south of 18N and west of 120W.

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