Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Greer, SC

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FXUS62 KGSP 160005
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
805 PM EDT Fri Mar 15 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Rain chances have mostly ended apart from a few sprinkles possible
through this evening, but more rain will return Sunday. Daytime
temperatures will be warm and spring-like through the weekend. Drier
and cooler conditions will return early next week as high pressure
arrives in the Carolinas.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 750 PM...Main changes with this update were to the PoPs to
reflect latest guidance. Still expect scattered showers to work into
the NC mountains from TN, with isolated showers possible across
the Upstate and NE GA this evening. Precip chances should dwindle
overnight, as dry air starts to work in from the NW. A cold front
should slip into the area later this evening under quasi-zonal flow
aloft. Plenty of mid and high clouds will linger well into the
night, and CAA remains weak within a westerly low-level flow. So
lows will remain mild, about 10 to 15 degrees above normal.

Otherwise...With a moist sfc layer intact overnight, expect
patchy to areas of fog, some of which could become dense before
daybreak. Downsloping and dry winds may offset the fog potential
in the mtn lee, however. Morning lows will remain elevated with
high moisture and sfc-layered mixing continuing. The upper pattern
remains zonal Sat and expect decent column drying leading to warming
temps into the m70s east of the mtns and arnd 70 F mtn valleys.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 146 PM EDT Friday: As the axis of a weak upper shortwave on
the periphery of an expansive Hudson low dips across the Ohio Valley
on Sunday, it`ll interact with a lobe of southern stream moisture
emanating from the Deep South.  A weak reinforcing cold front will
meander across the area Sunday afternoon, and whatever moisture
it has to work with will make itself known during the daytime.
Based on the 850mb charts, it looks like we`ll have only a brief
period of weak prefrontal WAA, which will struggle to bring moisture
far enough north to impact GSP`s forecast area.  The CAMs that go
out that far, however, do indeed bring some light showers across
the SC Upstate Sunday afternoon and evening as the front interacts
with what will likely be only shallow moisture.  All that to say,
only the southern zones are under the gun for any measureable QPF,
and with a distinct lack of upper forcing and no prospects of any
convection, this QPF won`t be particularly impressive.  Highs will
top out in the upper 60s, with many sites along the southern and
eastern fringe of the CWA hitting 70.

Sunday night, the front will slide east of the area and postfrontal
CAA will set in.  Model soundings indicate 30kt+ winds at 850mb,
and so the 90th percentile NBM winds actually look like a good
estimate for ridgetop gusts going into Monday.  CAA will last for a
surprisingly long period, well into Monday, with a 3-5mb pressure
gradient persisting across the Appalachians for much of the day.
So, Monday is expected to feature a breezy NW wind...and during the
afternoon, some of those winds may manage to mix down to the surface
even in the Piedmont and Upstate.  All things considered, though,
it looks like advisory-criteria winds aren`t likely.  Afternoon
highs will be significantly lower than Sunday`s, barely scraping
into the 60s (or not at all for the NC Foothills and mountains).

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 210 PM Friday: Picking up on Monday night, a strong upper
trough continues to dig southward over the eastern CONUS. Meanwhile,
an amplified upper high over the Pacific Northwest begins to
breakdown, while keeping the main upper flow out of the NW across
the region. This will enhance the likelihood for another round of
freezing temperatures across the entire CWA on Monday night. Freeze
products will likely be needed. By Tuesday, the upper trough lifts
toward the NE and exits the southeast, allowing for height rises to
slowly filter in. Moisture begins to return with guidance from the
GFS showing increased PWATs from the west, spilling eastward Tuesday
through the remainder of the week. Flow aloft becomes quasi-zonal by
Wednesday into Thursday as an upper low develops over the Rockies.
Guidance once again hints at another chance for a storm system by
the end of the week, but remains unclear of the timing and
placement. The GFS brings it in earlier than the EURO with an uptick
in QPF response by Friday. Will continue to monitor. As for any fire
weather concerns, with the higher pressure in place, RH values
should dip into the 20 percent range on Tuesday with a slight
increase on Wednesday ahead of the moisture return. As the upper
trough dips through and lifts, a frontal boundary could sweep
through and increase winds across the mountains and Piedmont Monday
night and into Tuesday. Should remain well below any advisory
criteria but could increase fire concerns. High temperatures on
Tuesday are expected to be cool and quickly warm up for the
remainder of the extended period. Once moisture starts to filter
back into the area on Wednesday, overnight temps should also start
increasing to near climo.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: There should be plenty of mid clouds with
periods of lower VFR clouds across the area thru most of the night,
which should limit fog potential. With that said, some guidance
is hinting at patchy fog across pretty much any of the TAF sites
during the overnight hours thru daybreak Saturday. But with
confidence still low, will just hint at some fog with 6sm br for
now. The combination of the clouds and a weak front pushing thru
and ushering in some drier air should mostly preclude widespread
or dense fog potential. As flow turns out of the NW, MVFR cigs
are expected to expand up the valley to KAVL, possibly persisting
thru Saturday morning. Skies should mostly clear out by midday,
with some fair wx cu forming in the aftn. Winds will be light,
favoring a WSW direction east of the mountains until the front
pushes thru after 6z, toggling the winds to N/NW, then N/NE Saturday
morning. Winds then toggle back to SW at all sites early in the
aftn except for KAVL, where NNW wind is expected thru the period.

Outlook: Another front will cross the area on Sunday but with
less moisture to work with for precip or restrictions. Dry high
pressure builds with gusty winds, especially on Monday.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...ARK/SBK
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...CP
AVIATION...ARK


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