914
FXUS62 KGSP 071045
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
645 AM EDT Fri Aug 7 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Updated the aviation discussion, otherwise no significant changes.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1. A few strong to severe thunderstorms again today and Saturday
with damaging wind gusts being the main threat, along with isolated
flash flooding where storms persist for a few hours.
2. Temperatures will climb back above normal on Sunday, after
which it will be hot and humid each day through mid-week. Some
locations could have triple digit heat index in the afternoon
starting Monday, mainly along and southeast of I-85.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Key message 1: A few strong to severe thunderstorms again today and
Saturday with damaging wind gusts being the main threat, along
with isolated flash flooding where storms persist for a few hours.

The western Carolinas will remain in a relative weakness in the
overall upper pattern in between the large anticyclone centered
over the Four Corners region and the Atlantic Subtropical
Ridge. The mid-level trof axis should remain to the west through
Saturday before either lifting out to the north or filling on
Sunday. Typically, when we have this pattern in the summertime
that means above normal chances of mainly diurnal showers and
storms, so the forecast will reflect that over the mtns at least,
with likely/categorical precip probs. The model blend might be a
bit deficient in the probs to the south/east of I-85 today and
Saturday, given the pattern, so a minor upward nudge might be
in order. The main concern for both days will be a few strong to
severe storms and isolated flash flooding if the past few days is
any indication. The afternoons should have roughly 2500 J/kg of
sfc-based CAPE and favorable sfc delta thetaE, though lapse rates
will be modest at best, but this should be enough to allow for some
strong outflows that could become severe. As for the excessive rain
potential, we note that the forecast area remains in the Marginal
Risk through 12Z Sunday, which is reasonable given the continued
high precipitable water above 2 inches outside the mtns and fcst
soundings showing deep warm cloud depths and low storm velocity. It
is August after all, so this tracks. As for temperatures, they
should stay right around normal for this time of year.


Key message 2: Temperatures will climb back above normal on Sunday,
after which it will be hot and humid each day through mid-week. Some
locations could have triple digit heat index in the afternoon
starting Monday, mainly along and southeast of I-85.

From Sunday into Monday, the Atlantic Subtropical Ridge will
build westward again, flattening the flow aloft and bringing
our region more under the influence of the Bermuda High. This
should do two things for us. One, precip chances will drop back to
climo or less each day, favoring the mtns in the afternoon. Two,
high temps should climb back above normal starting Sunday and
then reaching the mid-90s over the Piedmont and Upstate zones
by Tuesday. Combined with an increase in dewpoint, that should
push the afternoon heat index above 100F in some spots, mainly
around metro Charlotte, assuming a frontal boundary remains to
our north through the period. Confidence is marginal this far out,
but another round of heat advisories is possible. Eventually, by
late in the week, an upper trof is expected to dig over the east,
which could either bring us back into a storm track from the west
or allow the boundary to drop in from the north.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Waking up to widely varying and scattered
ceiling restrictions across the fcst area, such that any terminal
could have a brief restriction anywhere from LIFR to MVFR. Most will
probably stay VFR. The ceiling situation should sort itself out with
some daytime heating. This could pop up a low cloud MVFR ceiling
for a few hours until the cloud base lifts above 030. Otherwise, a
continued light SSW flow again today,with more diurnal thunderstorm
activity. A PROB30 will be employed this afternoon at all terminals,
until a consensus is reached on the most likely time for storms. The
activity should wind down again shortly after sunset, after which
we will have convective cloud debris and eventually another chance
of fog development where rain fell in the past 24 hours.

Outlook: Scattered showers and thunderstorms, with associated flight
restrictions through early next week. Patchy fog and low stratus are
possible each morning, especially in the mtn valleys and anywhere
that received significant rainfall the previous day/evening.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$

PM