Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tiyan, Guam

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000
FXPQ50 PGUM 272102
AFDGUM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tiyan GU
702 AM ChST Thu Mar 28 2024

.Marianas Synopsis...
Partly cloudy skies dominate most of the region, with slightly higher
coverage of clouds near Guam, which will be short-lived based on
satellite trends. Seas are in the 4 t0 6 foot range.

&&

.Discussion...
Not much has changed from the past several forecasts. The biggest
concern is winds, which may need to be increased some for the weekend
as the pressure gradient builds due to a shear line dropping south
towards the region, and an incoming trade wind surge. This will
probably exacerbate fire weather concerns for the holiday weekend,
which is discussed in more detail below. Although a passing shower or
two will occur through the next several days, rainfall chances are
minimal until the shear line gets closer, depending how strong it is.

&&

.Marine...
Gentle to moderate winds will become moderate to fresh within the
next 36 hours (by Friday afternoon) and continue through the weekend.
As winds increase, seas and surf will build as well with maybe a
near borderline threshold for a high rip risk developing for the
eastern reefs. We`ll continue to monitor this potential. Although
seas and winds will increase, current forecast values remain below
headline concerns, but again, we`ll keep an eye on this as well.

&&

.Fire weather...
Fire weather concerns are a VERY BIG concern. There is the POTENTIAL
for a DANGEROUS SITUATION to develop if a wild fire develops, as
we`ll be in the extreme threat range by Friday afternoon, and that`s
just based on the pure KDBI going above 700. Add in wind gusts of 25
mph or more, minimum relative humidity values of 45 to 60 percent,
elevated winds continuing at night (especially for higher
elevations), and the increased barbecuing and fiestas associated with
Easter Weekend, and the potential for ignition from any sparks or
embers is very, very concerning. USE OF CAUTION is highly encouraged
over the next few days. Enjoy your activities, but keep water nearby
encase any embers get loose, and stay safe.

&&

.Eastern Micronesia...
Multiple brief surges in the trades will continue to bring on-and-
off showers and some thunderstorms across eastern Micronesia into the
weekend, especially near Kosrae and Majuro, before much more pleasant
weather follows thereafter. Pohnpei is still expected to encounter a
drier than usual trade-wind pattern through at least the middle of
next week.

Combined seas of 6 to 9 feet are expected through at least the
weekend, as pulses of northerly swell mix in with trade swell.

&&

.Western Micronesia...
An already dry trade-wind pattern is expected to continue,
exacerbating existing drought conditions across much of western
Micronesia. Abnormally dry conditions are likely to continue to worsen,
stressing vegetation such as coconuts, in addition to increasing
risks of water shortages. Yap is now entering extreme drought
conditions, in addition to severe drought occurring along the outer
islands such as Fais and Satawal in Yap State. A slight uptick in
showers may bring some relief to Palau by Friday, but it may not be
enough to put a dent in already strained water levels. In addition,
mostly clear skies are expected at Yap Proper during the overnight
hours the next few days, so extreme care must still be taken to
conserve water.

Combined seas of 4 to 6 feet are expected to pick up, as trade winds
intensify and more northerly swells make their way across the region
during the weekend.

&&


.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...Fire Weather Watch from Friday morning through Monday morning for
     GUZ001.

MP...None.
Marianas Waters...None.
&&

$$

Marianas: Doll
Micronesia: Mcfarland


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