883
FXUS63 KMKX 180241 AAA
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
941 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Marine dense fog may linger through tonight.

- Chance of isolated thunderstorms Saturday evening.

- Warmer and more humid today through Sunday.

- Wet and a chance of thunderstorms Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued 941 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024

Quiet weather is expected across most of the area tonight, with
mostly clear skies and light winds under the western edge of
high pressure. One thing to watch though will be fog/stratus
that may sneak onshore later tonight. Currently watching an area
of fog/stratus via satellite that is gradually heading westward
towards the shore from roughly Port Washington down to Kenosha.
Put some patchy fog in the forecast for now. Not out of the
question for dense fog later tonight into the early morning
hours, but confidence isn`t high at this time due to models not
handling the current location and areal coverage of the fog
well. Otherwise, the forecast looks on track for the remainder
of the night.

DDV

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 312 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024

Tonight through Saturday night:

Scattered clouds across eastern areas will dissipate after the loss
of daytime heating. High pressure will move across Lake Michigan
tonight. Some fog is possible tonight, but south winds around 5 mph
on the backside of the high may be enough to limit fog development.

Clear skies will bring another warm day on Saturday. Light south
winds will become southwest during the day, ahead of a weak surface
trough tied to low pressure in southern Canada. This will move
across southern Wisconsin during the evening bringing a small chance
for a brief shower or thunderstorm. There will be a few hundred J of
Cape, with a capped environment, but the surface convergence will be
weakening as it moves through limiting the forcing. Most areas will
be dry. High pressure will them move through later Saturday
night.

Marquardt

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 312 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024

Sunday through Friday:

Dry and warm conditions are expected across southern Wisconsin
through much of the day Sunday as weak upper level ridging and
surface high pressure move northeast across Wisconsin. High
temperatures are expected to be in the low 80s.

A series of upper level shortwaves will traverse Wisconsin early
next week. The first upper shortwave trough will move into the
region Sunday evening, bringing with it surface low pressure and
an associated frontal system. There is some discrepancy between
the models on the timing of this shortwave and the associated
showers and storms, but overall the shortwave and low appear to
move into northwestern Wisconsin Monday morning which would
limit the strength and coverage of storms that develop. However,
GFS/NAM soundings indicate modest CAPE developing in the
afternoon which combined with modest 0-6km wind shear may lead
to the development of stronger storms if diurnal heating is able
to effectively modify the airmass.

The next shortwave trough and surface low will propagate through
Wisconsin Tuesday afternoon and are deeper/stronger than the
preceding features on Monday. Stronger thunderstorms are more
likely to develop as these move through Wisconsin, with GFS
soundings indicating steep mid-level lapse rates, high CAPE
values, and strong 0-6km shear. The SPC currently has southern
Wisconsin in an area of 15% probability for severe weather within
25 miles of a point. As such, Tuesday will need to be monitored over
the next few days.

Showers and storms look to impact southern Wisconsin again on
Wednesday before upper level ridging and high pressure build into
the midwest for the later half of next week.

Falkinham

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 941 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024

Widespread VFR conditions will continue tonight into Saturday
under the western edge of high pressure. The exception to that
would be if any fog/stratus sneaks onshore later tonight into
early Saturday. Put some reduced visibility and scattered lower
clouds in the TAFs for now and will continue to monitor
satellite trends. Not out the question for some brief dense fog
and/or low stratus, but confidence isn`t high in that potential
at this time. Light and variable winds tonight will pick up a
bit out of the south ahead of an approaching trough of low
pressure. Could see isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms as the trough pushes through tomorrow evening.

DDV

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 312 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024

Dense fog will continue across the southern half of Lake Michigan
and from North Point Light south. It may also impact other parts of
the nearshore waters at times. There is uncertainly how long it will
continue but may remain through the night. Winds will remain light
tonight so some fog may redevelop across the other nearshore area
and the rest of the open waters. Winds and waves will be below small
craft levels through Sunday. South winds will increase Monday and
again Tuesday night.

Marquardt

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...Dense Fog Advisory...LMZ080-LMZ567-LMZ645-LMZ646-LMZ669-LMZ671-
     LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-
     LMZ876-LMZ878 until 4 AM Saturday.

&&

$$

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