Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Honolulu, HI

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FXHW60 PHFO 241326

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
326 AM HST Thu Jun 24 2021

Light to moderate trade winds today will diminish Friday and
Saturday with afternoon sea breezes and nighttime land breezes
expected. Showers will be limited with clouds increasing in the
afternoon hours. Trade wind weather returns Sunday and continues
into next week with showers favoring windward and mountain areas.


Overnight satellite and radar imagery showed overcast clouds and
showers moving into windward areas of Maui and the Big Island,
while other windward locations are experiencing passing showers.
This trend will continue into the morning hours before partial
clearing in the late morning and early afternoon. Leeward
locations on the smaller islands may see a stray shower through
the early morning hours. A ridge about 200 miles north of Kauai
will allow light to moderate trade winds to hold today with
protected leeward locations seeing sea breezes and cloud buildups
in the afternoon. The ridge will move slowly SE through the day
and winds will weaken and turn out of the southeast later tonight.
With light southeastly flow expected Friday and Saturday, most
island will see a nighttime land breeze and daytime sea breeze
regime with increasing afternoon clouds and limited showers over
interior sections. Substantial warming aloft with keep the
atmosphere stable and showers will be limited in coverage and
intensity. The ridge will retreat to the north Sunday and next
week, allowing trade winds to return.


A weak ridge north of the state will move south slowly today and
lighten the winds, which will allow for sea breezes to develop in
many areas west of the Big Island. Clouds, and possibly some light
showers, will tend to form in the afternoon hours over leeward,
interior, and/or mauka sections as sea breezes take hold. Land
breezes will develop as the land cools overnight and cloudiness
dissipates. VFR conditions will predominate.

No AIRMETs are in effect nor expected through the day.


A stalled front north of the region will keep a weak ridge in
place northeast of the island chain through Saturday. This ridge
will build in north of the islands from Sunday onward. Light to
moderate trades will prevail through Saturday, then strengthen to
moderate to breezy levels from Sunday through the middle of next
week. Small Craft Advisories may be needed for the windier waters
around Maui and the Big Island during this time period.

Surf along south facing shores will see a series of south swells
over the next week. These swells should produce surf heights near
the summertime average heights (5 ft) through the middle of next
week. The current tiny northwest swell will diminish today, before
a new northwest swell builds in from Friday into early Sunday.
Surf along east facing shores will remain small due to weak trade
winds over and upstream of the island chain.





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