National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXHW60 PHFO 030640
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
840 PM HST Fri Jun 2 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
A ridge to the north will weaken and shift southward during the
next couple days, gradually easing the trade winds and bringing
mostly dry weather to the islands. The ridge will lift northward
early next week, increasing the trades back to moderate levels
levels, with rather dry weather persisting through Tuesday. The
trades will hold at moderate levels Tuesday night through late
next week, but an increase in moisture caught up in the trades
will bring a more typical windward and mauka focused shower
pattern to the islands along with a few leeward spillovers.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Currently at the surface, a weak ridge of high pressure is
positioned around 600 miles north of Kauai, while a cold front is
located close to 1000 miles northwest of the Garden Isle. The
gradient locally is primarily influenced by the ridge to the north
this evening, with moderate trade winds prevailing across the
island chain. Infrared satellite shows a considerable amount of
high cloud cover moving over the eastern islands, with partly to
mostly cloudy conditions present here. Meanwhile, clear to partly
cloudy skies prevail over the western end of the state. Radar
imagery shows very little shower activity across the islands, with
a few light showers over leeward Big Island and very little
elsewhere. Main short term focus revolves around trade wind trends
and rain chances during the next several days.

The cold front to the distant northwest will shift eastward during
the next couple days, weakening the ridge and displacing it
southward and closer to the state. Moderate trades will hold
through the day Saturday, with localized leeward sea breezes
expected. The trades will ease into the light to locally moderate
range Sunday through early Monday, with sea and land breezes more
common in leeward locales. The front will stall out north of the
islands late Monday, with the ridge to the north strengthening and
lifting slowly northward. This should bring a return of moderate
trades to most areas by late Monday, although some leeward sea
breezes will likely continue. Ridging north of the islands will then
remain nearly stationary through late next week, with moderate
trade winds prevailing.

As for the remaining weather details, very dry conditions are
expected through the day Saturday as precipitable water values
plummet down close to or below 1 inch. As a result, nothing more
than isolated shower coverage is expected. The airmass should
moisten up a bit Saturday night, bringing a slight increase in
shower coverage to windward areas. Rather dry weather will persist
Sunday through Tuesday. Showers will favor windward areas at
night and interior and leeward areas each afternoon through Monday.
A return to trade wind weather is expected Monday night and
Tuesday, however it should remain a drier than normal trade wind
regime. The air mass appears to moisten up slightly Tuesday night
through late next week, bringing a return of typical trade wind
weather featuring windward showers and the occasional leeward
spillover.

Scattered to broken high clouds will continue to move overhead
at times through early next week, with coverage the greatest over
the eastern end of the state.

&&

.AVIATION...
Light to moderate trade winds tonight, will weaken Saturday
maintaining limited showers across windward areas. The lighter
winds Saturday will allow for a few afternoon sea breeze clouds
and isolated showers across sheltered leeward areas. Mainly VFR
conditions expected through Saturday.

AIRMET Tango remains in effect for tempo moderate turbulence
statewide between FL250 and FL350 due to upper level jet dynamics
over the islands. The jet will linger around the state through
the weekend, maintaining high clouds across the eastern portion
of the state.

&&

.MARINE...
Moderate to fresh northeast to easterly trade winds will ease into
the light to moderate range over the weekend as a weakness forms
in the ridge to the north. Despite the lighter winds, expect
localized pockets of fresh breezes to develop near the coasts
during the late morning and afternoon hours due to a combination
of the orientation of the terrain, wind direction, and heating.
Guidance shows a return of moderate to fresh trades around
midweek as the ridge strengthens.

Surf along south facing shores will remain small through next
week with mainly background long-period southerly swells. The
next swell should begin to move through late Saturday from a
recent Tasman Sea source (south-southwest direction), then
continue into early next week. A mix of this south-southwest
swell and a fresh south-southeast medium period swell from a
system passing well south of Tahiti and the Tuamotus at the end
of May is expected from late Monday through midweek. As these
sources fade by Thursday, another small background south-
southwest swell is expected Friday into next weekend.

Surf along north facing shores will remain near the seasonal
average each day through the first half of next week. Although
guidance does show a decent out of season northwest swell
arriving late next week, confidence is low at this point due to
the source quickly lifting north-northeast over the far northwest
Pacific Sunday and Sunday night.

Surf along east facing shores will remain small through next week
due to the light trades locally and far upstream of the state over
the far eastern Pacific.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Jelsema
AVIATION...SWR
MARINE...Gibbs