340
FXHW60 PHFO 291958
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
958 AM HST Mon Apr 29 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Moderate trades will prevail over the eastern islands through the
first half of the work week, while lighter trades over the
western islands allow for some leeward land and sea breezes.
Relatively dry weather will persist through Tuesday, with a few
showers affecting windward areas overnight into the early morning
hours and developing over interior and leeward areas each
afternoon. The trades will rebound Tuesday night and Wednesday,
bringing a transition over to more typical trade wind weather. The
trades will become breezy Thursday through next weekend, and the
trade wind showers may increase as well due to a disturbance aloft
moving over the islands over the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
This morning`s satellite imagery is showing a band of high cirrus
clouds across the smaller islands with scattered low level
cumulus across many windward areas. For rest of today, we will
continue to see a hybrid wind pattern with light to moderate
trades with localized sea breezes developing during the day. Sea
breezes should develop in many leeward areas, which will likely
lead to afternoon clouds over leeward and interior areas and
scattered showers. Any showers that do develop during the
afternoon, should taper off in the evening. Otherwise, a similar
weather pattern is expected on Tuesday, with mostly dry conditions
in the morning and scattered light showers in the afternoon.

The trades should begin to strengthen on Wednesday and by
Thursday, we should see breezy trades across the state. For
Thursday and Friday, we should see our typical breezy trade wind
weather with scattered showers over windward and mountain areas
and isolated showers over leeward areas from time to time.

Over the weekend, latest model guidance is showing an upper level
low approaching the state from the west, which will lead to
unstable conditions. At the surface, we should continue to see
high pressure centered far north of the state generating breezy
trade winds. With breezy trades at the surface and unstable
conditions aloft, we will likely see enhanced trade wind showers.
The details are still very uncertain due to models having a
difficult time handling the evolution of upper level lows.
Nonetheless, we will likely see increased shower activity
especially around Sunday or Monday of next week.


&&

.AVIATION...
Light to moderate ESE winds with localized sea and land breezes will
continue through tomorrow. Showers will focus over southeastern
slopes but overall coverage should be limited due to a relatively
dry airmass. VFR conditions will prevail for the most part.

High clouds will continue to stream across the Hawaiian Islands
today as an upper level jet streak moves from west to east. An
AIRMET Tango for tempo moderate turbulence is in effect between
FL300 and FL380 and will likely remain through the day.

Otherwise, with the lighter ESE flow, afternoon sea breeze
activity is expected across wind- sheltered areas, with some
inland/leeward cloud buildups and a few light showers possible.
However, the high clouds may inhibit heating over land, and
therefore limit sea breeze activity.


&&

.MARINE...
High pressure far northeast of the state will continue to slide
east while a dissipating front passes north of the islands. Trade
winds have eased, and the Small Craft Advisory (SCA) was
cancelled for all zones this morning. By mid-week, however, high
pressure will rebuild to the northeast and usher in the return of
fresh to locally strong trade winds. The SCA will likely go back
up for the typical windy waters around Maui County and the Big
Island Wednesday or Thursday.

North facing shores will remain small through the week with tiny
to small background energy. Surf along east facing shores will
decline through Tuesday then rebuild Thursday and Friday with the
trade winds. A small long period south-southwest pulse will fill
in through the day, peak Tuesday and ease Wednesday for south
facing shores. Surf heights along the south facing shores should
remain near or slightly below seasonal norms.


&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$


DISCUSSION...Kino
AVIATION...Tsamous
MARINE...Bedal/Wroe