282
FXHW60 PHFO 262001
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
1001 AM HST Fri Jul 26 2024

.SYNOPSIS...

A strong high pressure system north of the Hawaiian Islands will
continue to produce breezy to locally windy trade winds across the
region today. Wind speed trends will decrease slightly into the
moderate to breezy range Saturday to Sunday, and then to moderate
levels from Monday onward and the high gradually weakens. Strong
and stable subsidence aloft will limit shower potential for most
days into next week. However, a slight increase in cloud and
shower trends may develop later tonight through Saturday as a weak
easterly wave moves from east to west down the island chain.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A strong high pressure system north of the Hawaiian Islands will
continue to produce breezy to locally windy trade winds across the
region today. Scattered clouds with isolated showers embedded in
the trade wind flow will focus along windward and mauka regions.
The subtropical jet rounding an upper level low 600 to 700 miles
northwest of Kauai is also sending some high clouds over the
state. Models continue to show a subtle low level trough moving
from east to west across the island chain tonight through
Saturday. This could elevate inversion heights enough allowing for
increasing shower trends, mainly over windward and mountain areas
with some spillage to leeward areas of the smaller islands.
However, total precipitable water values locally and upstream will
remain near to below average so this may put an upper limit shower
trends.

The high will gradually weaken this weekend resulting in a decreasing
wind speed trend. Trades are expected to become moderate to breezy
Saturday to Sunday, before further weakening to more moderate levels
from Monday onward. Some of the more wind favored areas may see
brief periods of locally breezy wind speeds next week. Can expect
stable and mostly dry weather trade wind weather through the rest
of the forecast period. Strong and stable subsidence under an
upper level ridge will continue to limit vertical cloud heights
and shower development into much of next week as well as near to
below average precipitable water values.


&&

.AVIATION...

Breezy to locally windy trade winds will remain today and slowly
decrease in strength starting tomorrow. Clouds and showers will
focus primarily over windward and mountain areas with enhanced
showers at night time. MVFR ceilings and visibility can be
expected in any showers. Overall VFR conditions will likely
prevail.

AIRMET Tango remains in effect for moderate low-level turbulence
for areas downwind of island terrain and will likely be needed
through tomorrow.


&&

.MARINE...

Strong surface high pressure far northeast of the state will
continue to produce strong to locally near gale force trade winds
today. As a result, a Small Craft Advisory (SCA) remains in
effect for all Hawaiian waters through 6 pm HST today. However,
the high will weaken slightly this weekend as it drifts westward,
resulting in a slight easing of the winds back to fresh to
locally strong. The SCA coverage will need to be trimmed, likely
by tonight, to just the typical windier areas around Maui County
and the Big Island. Early next week, the aforementioned high will
continue to move west and trades will ease into the gentle to
fresh range.

The enhanced trades will continue to produce rough and choppy
surf for the east-facing shores through the weekend. Local wind
swell may wrap into select north and south facing shores. Near
shore buoys this morning were indicating the arrival of a roughly
1 foot, long period south swell, which will provide small surf
for south facing shores today. This will be followed by a
background swell from the south- southwest on Saturday. Otherwise,
no significant swells are expected for the rest of the week.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST this evening for all
Hawaiian waters-


&&

$$


DISCUSSION...Almanza
AVIATION...Tsamous
MARINE...Thomas