815
FXUS64 KHGX 191733
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1233 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday Night)
Issued at 312 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024

The City of Houston experienced just its second 90+F day of the
year on Saturday, but there`s plenty more where that came from!
Before we get to that though...if you have any plans to hit the
roadways later this morning, be aware of the potential of patchy
dense fog. With light winds, saturated soils, and clear skies
allowing for radiational cooling to drop temperatures to the dew
points, we have a fairly decent fog setup. We are a bit drier this
morning though thanks to the plentiful sunshine on Saturday, so the
fog likely won`t be quite as widespread. Locations west of I-45 look
to have the best odds of patchy fog this morning. Any fog that
develops will burn off by 9-10am. From there our attention turns to
the hot temperatures once again. With ridging aloft still in place,
we`re expecting another day with high temperatures in the low 90s.
Heat index values will be in the upper 90s once again, but at least
we`ll have a noticeable southeasterly breeze this time around. That
southeasterly breeze is a blessing for now (especially for those
still without power), but will be part of our downfall later on in
the week when you see what the additional humidity does to our heat
index values.

Monday will be just about the same as Sunday, but a little bit
breezier thanks to a tighter pressure gradient. A shortwave trough
pushes through the Central Plains and generates surface low pressure
on the lee-side of the Rockies. As the low deepens and nudges
eastward, it tightens our pressure gradient further. It also places
us in its warm sector, so we`ll start to see our humidity climb
further thanks to the enhanced moisture transport. This leads to
heat index values seeing a slight rise into the 96-100F range. The
upward trend in heat index values don`t stop there, so it remains
very important to keep heat safety as a top priority...especially
for those still without power. Overnight lows will increase from the
low 70s tonight to the mid/upper 70s Monday night, so there`s not
much relief from the warmer temperatures. Be sure to take the proper
precautions to protect yourself and your loved ones from the
stresses of heat: drink plenty of water, take frequent breaks, avoid
strenuous outdoor activities during the hottest part of the day,
know the signs of heat stroke/heat exhaustion, and ALWAYS ALWAYS
ALWAYS look before you lock your vehicle. Don`t forget about your
pets as well! If the ground is too hot for the palm of your hand,
then it is too hot for their paws.

Batiste

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 312 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024

Heat continues to be the main concern in this forecast period. The
area will remain on the northern edge of mid/upper level ridging,
but a weakness in the ridge still looks like it could develop around
midweek that could allow for possible showers/thunderstorms to enter
the area (mostly in our northern counties where the weakness is strongest
and an eastward moving disturbance/impulse skirts across the area).
Will close out the week and start next weekend on the dry side for
now, but we will need to keep an eye on the strength of the ridge
as any weakness on the northern fringes could allow for another chance
of rain (again, mainly across our northern counties).

For high temperatures, will generally stick with around 90 to the low
90s Tuesday through Thursday, then trend upward a degree or two (around
a 90 TO 96 range) heading into Friday and Saturday. Low temperatures
will be on the warm side too, generally in a 72 to 77 or 78 degree range
throughout the period.

Peak heat index values will be in the low 100s daily (generally 100
to 105), so make sure all heat safety precautions are being taken to
stay safe!

42

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1231 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024

VFR prevailing through the period. Included TEMPO for 12-14Z for
a few sites for potential for patchy fog that could lead to MVFR
VSBYs. Otherwise, high clouds expected with light SE winds.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 312 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024

Light to occasionally moderate east to southeast winds today will become
southeast tonight and Monday, and this southeast flow will then persist
and gradually strengthen for the remainder of the week. Caution flags
might be needed for the increasing winds and building seas.

42

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 312 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024

Minor to major river flooding continues for parts of Southeast
Texas, particularly along portions of the Trinity, Brazos, and San
Jacinto rivers. The following river points are either currently in
flood stage or are forecast to reach flood stage (as of early Sunday
morning):

MAJOR//
-------
- Trinity River (Liberty): Major Flood Stage
- Trinity River (Goodrich): Major Flood Stage

MODERATE//
----------
- Trinity River (Riverside): Moderate Flood Stage
- Trinity River (Moss Bluff): Moderate Flood Stage
- East Fork San Jacinto (New Caney): Moderate Flood Stage

MINOR//
-------
- Menard Creek (Rye): Minor Flood Stage
- Lake Creek (Sendera Ranch Rd.): Minor Flood Stage
- Navasota River (Normangee): Minor Flood Stage
- Brazos River (Rosharon): Minor Flood Stage
- Brazos River (Richmond): Minor Flood Stage (forecast)
- Brazos River (Sugar Land): Minor Flood Stage (forecast)

Remember to heed any instructions from your local officials and to
never travel through ANY flooded areas or roadways. TURN AROUND,
DON`T DROWN. Please monitor updated forecasts via the NWS AHPS
website and/or the new NWS NWPS webpage (https://water.noaa.gov/) as
the river flood threat persists.

Batiste

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 312 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024

Still amazed with how much rain parts of our northern counties have
received so far this year. Through May 17th, Huntsville`s (UTS) 50.14
inches was 35.01 inches above normal and was the wettest on record
start to the year (previous record was 22.37 inches in 2004). Huntsville`s
records date back to 4/1/1998.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  90  71  89  75 /   0   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)  91  72  90  75 /   0   0   0   0
Galveston (GLS)  84  76  83  77 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Batiste
LONG TERM....42
AVIATION...Batiste
MARINE...42