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000
FXUS64 KHGX 231949
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
249 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 218 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

A look at the satellite this afternoon will confirm from above
what you can also likely see from your nearest window - it`s
mostly cloudy out there. The exception is out towards the Piney
Woods in parts of Houston, Trinity, and Polk counties, where it
will remain tree canopy that blocks your view of the sky, not the
clouds. Despite that, we are continuing the expected warming
trend, with temperatures reaching into the middle 70s throughout
the region, on pace for highs in the upper half of the 70s for
most in the next few hours.

If you like your nights a bit chillier - firstly, I congratulate
your good taste, but also I have some bad news. With clouds
staying in place, and onshore flow continuing to pump in higher
dewpoints, we are assured to have a higher temperature floor
overnight as well. Lows tonight look to be a good 10-15 degrees
higher than last night, ranging from the low 60s in the far north
to right around 70 degrees on the Gulf. This of course, sets us up
for another warm day tomorrow, in spite of another day that`s
anticipated to be mostly cloudy. Starting as warm as we are, highs
should nudge up to around or above 80 degrees area-wide.

Outside of the temps and continued onshore winds, there`s not a
whole lot else of note in the short term. I did struggle with rain
chances. We`ve got a decently low cloud base and increasing moisture,
which has me thinking we can manage a smattering or real light,
real quick sprinkles/light showers. But since these tend to struggle
to manage more than a trace of rain, and the PoPs are defined by
having measurable rain, I chose to keep those rain chances low,
below the threshold for a slight chance mention. Even if you stipulate
one of these quick hitter sprinklers, the odds aren`t great for
getting even a hundredth of an inch out of them.    Luchs

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 218 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

Upper level ridging from Mexico into Texas will be transitioning
eastward on Thursday. This will open us to more of a swly flow
aloft with broad mid-upper troffiness situated across the western
CONUS as we close out the week.

As far as the local forecast goes, look for increasingly breezy
conditions as we head into the weekend as the pressure gradient
tightens. With steady winds coming in off the Gulf, I`d anticipate
mcldy skies, humid conditions and overnight low temperatures
resembling those of early June (low 70s). Though slightly above
normal, cloud cover should keep readings in the 83-87 range most
days.

Despite somewhat moist conditions, other some some diffuse impulses
moving overhead from time-to-time, there really isn`t much in the
way of distinct triggers or focusing mechanisms needed for
widespread chances of rain. There are a few possible exceptions
we`ll be keeping an eye on (mainly for the northern parts of the
CWA). Looks like there will be a few shortwaves drop into the base
of the trof then eject into the Plains. As this occurs we might
see the tail end of some associated bands of shra/tstms try to
sneak into portions of the area. Friday and Sunday would be the
days I`d be looking at if so. 47

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

A mix of VFR and MVFR around the area, but anticipate all TAF
sites will see CIGs lift to VFR this afternoon, even if it`s just
barely in some spots. Clouds hang tight with us through the
period, gradually coming back down to MVFR late this evening. Some
guidance gets aggressive in this drop, going to low MVFR and even
IFR in spots. This seems reasonable for short stretches, but not
enough confidence in precise impacts to lay it out in the TAF this
cycle. Future cycles may want to dig into this nuance a little
more. Similarly, there could be a bit more wiggling in the winds,
but for now stick with sketching out the broader S/SE pattern,
becoming light/VRB late, and S/SE winds returning in the morning.
Finally, as moisture continues to deepen and ample clouds, some
light showers here and there aren`t impossible...but not
significant enough to explicitly put into the forecast at this
time.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 218 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

Onshore flow will continue through the week. Winds and seas will
be on an upward climb later in the week and weekend as a long fetch
of moderate to strong southeast winds set up across the Gulf.
Small craft advisories are looking increasingly probable as are
high risks of rip currents on area beaches this weekend. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  65  83  67  84 /  10  10  10   0
Houston (IAH)  66  83  67  84 /   0  10   0   0
Galveston (GLS)  70  77  70  78 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$