178
AGUS76 KRSA 071523
HMDRSA

Hydrometeorological Discussion
National Weather Service / California Nevada RFC / Sacramento CA
830 AM PDT Mon Oct 7 2024

...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO MID-WEEK WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/T-STORMS ALONG THE SIERRA AND EAST INTO NE NV TODAY INTO
TUESDAY...

...TEMPERATURES COOL BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL AND A CHANCE OF PRECIP
OVER SRN OR AND NRN CA AND CENTRAL CA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...

.METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS (MON AM - SUN AM)...

The ridge has shifted a little east with a weak shortwave trough
along CA coast today into Tuesday.  The weak trough moves off the
Baja coast and a weak trough moves into B.C./Pac NW on Wednesday.
Temperatures generally around 5 to 20 degrees above normal today and
tonight then a little cooler temperatures for Tuesday and Wednesday
with highs generally around 5 to 15 degrees above normal.
Weak trough will bring some instability for a slight chance of
showers and thunderstorms over the higher terrain of Nrn CA and
along the Sierra and east over NV this afternoon/evening and along
the Srn Sierra and over portions of NV Tuesday.

A low pressure system approaches the west coast on Thursday into
Friday bringing cooler temperatures and increased onshore flow.
Temperatures cool to near normal to 10 degrees above normal over Srn
OR and northern CA and around 5 to 15 degrees above normal for
Central and Srn CA and over NV on Thursday and cooling to near to 10
degrees below normal for Srn OR and Nrn and Central CA and near
normal to 10 degrees above normal for Srn CA and NV on Saturday.
Models and ensemble members vary with the timing and strength of the
low for low confidence in precip amounts, timing and coverage Friday
and Saturday.  The forecast currently uses a blend of NBM and WPC
with precip possible into the Srn OR Cascades and over Nrn CA,
especially along the coast (generally around 0.25- half an inch) on
Friday. Precip may spread south along the Central CA coast on
Saturday.  About 3/4 of the ensemble members show dry conditions
through 00Z Saturday and about 1/4 (21%- Canadian 10%, GFS 30% and
EC 20%) showing precip in far NW CA and Srn OR Cascades.


Please Note: This product may NOT be routinely updated Friday
through Sunday between Jun 1 and Oct 1. Please refer to
www.cnrfc.noaa.gov/dailyBriefing.php for a graphical summary of
weather and hydrologic conditions.

QPF graphics are available at www.cnrfc.noaa.gov/qpf.php



Osborne

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