941
FXUS64 KHUN 060943
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
443 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.NEAR TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 443 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024

A weak area of low pressure will continue to lift northeastward
from the Arklatex region into the Mid-MS Valley by 12Z in
conjunction with a 500-mb shortwave trough. As this occurs, a warm
front attached to the surface cyclone will progress northeastward
through the TN Valley early this morning and into the OH Valley
by late this afternoon. Clusters of showers and thunderstorms
(generated by lift both in the vicinity of the warm front and
downstream from the mid-level trough) will continue to spread
eastward across the local CWFA through late this morning, and with
redevelopment of storms noted to the west of a broader axis of
convection (currently across northeast MS/northwest AL), we have
included a fairly high POP this morning (focused north of the TN
River). Southwesterly winds aloft have strengthened into the 25-35
knot range, and this will continue to support a risk for brief
strong wind gusts (up to 40-50 MPH), small hail, and frequent
lightning, especially as elevated CAPE gradually increases over
the next several hours. However, flooding may end up being the
greatest concern, with evidence of echo training across northern
MS and PWAT values in the 1.4-1.6" range.

The coverage of showers and thunderstorms will likely become a
bit more scattered this afternoon, as the mid-level trough shifts
further northeastward into eastern KY/TN and a ridge aloft
translates across the region in the wake of this feature. However,
with insolation later this morning and this afternoon providing
for highs in the mid 80s, dewpoints in the u60s-l70s will yield
MLCAPE in the 1500-2000 J/kg range and the risk for additional
storm development cannot be discounted.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 443 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024

The remnants of afternoon showers and thunderstorms today should
spread east-northeastward and out of the local area shortly after
sunset this evening, and although there is a low probability for
redevelopment of a few showers after Midnight as low-level SSW
flow strengthens ahead of a dryline and broken QLCS surging
eastward into the Mid/Upper-MS Valley, we will leave the forecast
dry at this time. Otherwise, it will be a very warm night, with
lows in the upper 60s for much of the region due to elevated SSW
winds and development of low stratus clouds prior to sunrise.

Latest solutions from the 00Z CAMs suggest that a subtle surface
trough ahead of the Pacific cold front/dryline to our north may
initiate the development of thunderstorms to our southwest (across
the Arklamiss region) late Tuesday morning that would spread
northeastward into our forecast area during the afternoon, with
additional storms likely to develop along the same trough across
our region as morning low clouds disperse allowing for rapid
destabilization early Tuesday afternoon. With mid-level flow
predicted to back to W or WSW and increase to 35-45 knots in the
wake of a departing shortwave ridge, resultant deep-layer shear
will support multicell clusters and perhaps a few supercells that
could produce large hail/damaging winds (especially as steepening
lapse rates aloft and surface temps in the mid 80s will generate
moderate-strong instability highlighted by CAPE in the 2000-3000
J/kg range). This regime may persist into Tuesday evening, with
separate clusters of storms (originating along a frontal
confluence axis across the OH Valley) perhaps propagating
southeastward into our region after Midnight in the presence of a
WSW low-level jet of 25-35 knots. With shear and instability
remaining favorable for strong-severe storms throughout the
overnight hours, a Marginal (Level 2/5) Risk is warranted.

During the day on Wednesday, it still appears as if a frontal
wave (originating across the southern High Plains Tuesday) will
shift northeastward from the OK-KS border into the Mid-MS Valley.
Rapid development of intense convection is expected to occur
Wednesday afternoon within a very unstable and strongly sheared
environment to our northwest (in the vicinity of the cyclone`s
trailing cold front from southern MO into northeastern TX).
Although there are still some minor differences in timing, this
activity should evolve into a potent MCS Wednesday evening as it
spreads southeastward, reaching the local CWFA in the 6-12Z
timeframe Thursday. Environmental parameters appear quite
favorable for a high impact severe thunderstorm event for our
region during this timeframe, primarily from the standpoint of
large hail and damaging wind. However, if the low-level jet
strengthens to 30-40 knots (as indicated by some guidance), then
the risk for a few tornadoes will increase as well.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 443 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024

Trailing stratiform precipitation in the wake of a rather broad
MCS early Thursday morning will likely be in progress across much
of the region at 12Z Thursday, but should slowly spread
southeastward over the course of the morning. Additional showers
and perhaps a few storms may also redevelop during the afternoon
as a cold front shifts southeastward through the TN Valley, but
airmass recovery in the wake of widespread early morning precip
should not be sufficient to raise concern for strong-severe
convection. A final round of postfrontal showers may occur late
Thursday night, along the northern fringe of another well
organized convective complex traveling eastward along the central
Gulf Coast. Beyond this point, a cooler/drier airmass in the wake
of the cold front will reduce POPs to around 10% on Friday and
Saturday. However, there are indications that another Gulf low may
develop late in the weekend, with a slight chance POP for showers
introduced on Sunday. Highs this weekend will be in the lower
70s, with lows in the l-m 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1242 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024

There have been no changes to previous aviation forecast
reasoning, as showers will linger into the night keeping MVFR
conditions in place. Reduced the coverage of showers and storms
for tomorrow morning into early afternoon for this TAF issuance
and introduced a PROB30 instead for isolated showers until the
afternoon when the low chances for thunderstorms return.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...70/DD
SHORT TERM...70/DD
LONG TERM...70/DD
AVIATION...RSB