317
FXUS64 KMOB 151137
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
637 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

...New Aviation...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 117 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

While it will be hot on Tuesday, all eyes will turn to the Gulf
as we head into the middle to latter part of the week.

The ridge overhead continues to get nudged westward slightly by an
inverted trough sliding out of the Atlantic and into the Gulf. The
ridge still remains overhead somewhat on Tuesday and Wednesday as
the system slides over the Gulf. Hottest day of the week is Tuesday,
but it`ll still be toasty on Wednesday. Expect highs to top out in
the mid to upper 90s this afternoon with the hottest spots in the
Florida panhandle and south-central Alabama ( few spots may even hit
the century mark for a short period of time late this afternoon).
Heat indices should remain below advisory criteria today for the
majority of the area with one or two spots along the coast (likely
Destin and Gulf Shores) potentially tagging 108 for an hour or so.

Meanwhile, looking out into the Gulf, there`s not much to talk about
right this second, but that will change as we roll into the middle
of the week. An area of low pressure currently off the eastern coast
of Florida will trek across the Florida peninsula through the day
today and eventually pop out into the Gulf late on Tuesday.
Conditions are generally favorable for gradual development (if it
remains offshore) and a tropical depression could form somewhere
over the northern Gulf at some point on Wednesday or Thursday. There
is still a lot of uncertainty regarding whether or not this develops
into a tropical depression and regarding the eventual track of the
system. One potential scenario is that the system moves into the
Gulf and remains near the coastline with less time to develop.
Another scenario is that this system moves a little further out into
the Gulf with more time to develop. Regardless of development, we
will get drenched with heavy rain (especially across the southern
portion of the area), which may lead to flooding issues if storms
repeatedly move over the same locations. Our current forecast has 3-
4 inches of rain across our coastal counties in AL/FL and up into
our southern tier of MS counties. That said, high-end rainfall
amounts of 4-6 inches are possible (not overly likely, but a
possible scenario) in that corridor. In addition to heavy rain, the
risk for rip currents quickly increases to a HIGH RISK on at least
Thursday and Friday as swell reaches our beaches from this system
moving across the Gulf. This means that breakers at the beaches may
approach High Surf Advisory criteria. 07/mb

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 635 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

VFR conditions are expected to prevail over the next 24 hours.
Isolated to scattered showers and storms will develop this
afternoon across the area, with the best chances over the western
Florida Panhandle. Expect brief reductions in visibilities and
ceilings in some of the heavier activity. Light and variable winds
this morning will becoming northwesterly to northerly by the
afternoon hours. /96

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 117 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

No impacts expected other than locally higher winds and seas
possible near thunderstorms today. By Wednesday, onshore flow
develops as an area of low pressure moves westward across the
northern Gulf. If a tropical depression develops in the middle to
late part of the week, expect an increase in seas and winds. 07/mb

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      96  75  94  74  89  74  87  74 /  20  20  80  60 100  60  90  30
Pensacola   97  77  92  77  88  78  88  78 /  30  50  90  70  90  60  90  30
Destin      96  79  91  79  89  80  90  81 /  50  50  90  70  90  60  80  20
Evergreen   98  74  95  73  91  73  91  73 /  20  20  60  30  90  30  80  20
Waynesboro  96  74  97  74  91  73  89  73 /  10  10  40  30  90  20  80  20
Camden      96  74  95  74  90  74  89  73 /  10  10  40  20  80  10  80  10
Crestview   98  74  93  74  89  74  90  73 /  50  40  90  40 100  40  90  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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