Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN

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FXUS64 KOHX 240138
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
838 PM CDT Mon Apr 23 2018

.UPDATE...
FOR EVENING DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

The upper low that brought all of today`s action continues to spin
overhead. Rainfall amounts up to 3 inches fell according to radar
estimates, and flooding around the area has been an issue for
areas across the mid state. Northern and eastern Davidson county
as well as southern Sumner have some of those higher rainfall
totals, with much of that falling in a short time frame.
Fortunately convection around and west of I-65 has weakened this
evening, and now a broad shield of rain has developed on the
Plateau ahead of the upper low. Short term models were all over
this rain developing this evening, and looks to continue into the
overnight hours. Rainfall amounts of up to an inch and a half will
be possible for that area before 12Z.

Adjusted the forecast a bit to match current trends, as well as
matching up pops with short term model consensus. Other than that,
rest of the forecast looks to be on track.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR to MVFR conditions continue across the mid-state as showers
and the occasional thunderstorm continues to plague the area.
Latest guidance suggests rains will taper off across the west
around 06Z, but continue in the east (KCSV). Either way, look for
IFR conditions to settle in all terminals after 06Z. Flight
categories should improve slightly by the middle of Tue morning.

Winds will be easterly and light this evening, then shift to the
northwest tomorrow as this system finally starts pushing east.
Only expecting 8-10kts with an occasional gust to 15kts tomorrow.


&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION......04
AVIATION........Unger


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