516
FXUS64 KAMA 170527
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1227 AM CDT Fri May 17 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM ...
(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 234 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024

Looking at current GOES-16 water vapor imagery an mid to upper
level pressure is centered right around the White Sands and
Mescalero Reservation in south central New Mexico. The associated
trough with this system as already brought some showers and
thunderstorms to the southwestern Texas Panhandle southward
towards Muleshoe. Showers and thunderstorms will continue to be
possible early this afternoon for the southwest and possibly
western TX Panhandle. However, it will not be until later this
evening when the aforementioned low pressure system moves into
portions of West Texas and the southern TX Panhandle when the
southern portions of the FA can see some slightly higher chances
for rain again.

Currently there is some decent bulk shear around 30 to 35 kts
based on this mornings KAMA upper air sounding. However, there was
a measly 45 J/Kg of MLCAPE with a very stout cap. Late this
afternoon as the cap weakens and MLCAPE is progged to jump to
around 800 to 1000 J/Kg of for spread across the southern TX
Panhandle. However, some low clouds have been playing a role in
overall heating today and bulk shear is progged to fall to around
20 kts or less when the main system comes across. Severe storms
are not anticipated due to these factors, but cannot completely
rule out an isolated severe storm with one inch hail and 60 mph
plus wind gusts late this afternoon/evening.

Some of the CAMS are excited about storm activity as far north as
the I-40 corridor with others keeping all the activity to the
south. The track of the upper level low and the main dynamics from
it will determine how much of the FA actually gets the showers and
thunderstorms. If the NAM is correct, there will be quiet a bit of
negative H7 theta-e advection for much of the northern half to two
thirds of the combined Panhandles. This will limit any activity to
south of the I-40 corridor and may even kill any chance for
Amarillo to see some moisture. The RAP solution favors areas north
and south of I-40 in southern TX Panhandle, to include much of
Oldham to Wheeler County north of the Interstate. Mainly between 4
PM and 10 PM this evening.

With the upper level low tracking across during the late afternoon
and evening hours, it should start to exit taking all precip
chances with it before 11 PM. This will leave the FA in the wake
of the trough and meridional flow aloft ahead of a ridge building
into the area. Because of this Fri is looking dry with daytime
temperatures rebounding into the lower 80s. Surface winds are
progged to be light and variable through the afternoon with a
pleasant day in store.

36

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 234 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024

Winds aloft Saturday quickly go from northwest to westerly as an
upper level ridge builds into the area. With this ridge H85
daytime temperatures begin to rise to near 27 degrees C, with
surface temps expected to be in the upper 80s and lower 90s for
Sat afternoon. This ridge continues to build with Sun and Mon
being the warmest with wide spread temps in the mid 90s across the
combined Panhandles. Palo Duro Canyon may even flirt with its
first triple digit day of the year with mostly clear skies.

Although it is looking like it will be dry during this time. The
GFS shows an upper shortwave passage, a perturbation in the ridge
aloft potentially sparking some thunderstorms over portions of the
north and eastern combined Panhandles. At the surface the models
suggest a potential dryline in the eastern Panhandles in the
afternoon. Have stuck with the NBM PoPs which leaves all areas dry
with the dryline mixing well east by the time any thunderstorms
can get going. Will need to keep an eye on the model trends
through the weekend to see if models trend differently with the
dryline and thunder potential.

Late Mon into Tue morning an upper level shortwave is progged to
approach the combined Panhandles. This will send a weak cold front
into the area for Tue and Wed cooling afternoon temps off a bit
back into the upper 70s to the northwest and 80s to the southeast
for Tuesday, and widespread lower 80s on Wed. At this time the
trough does not appear to bring any precip chances to the combined
Panhandles, but it does to areas just north of the OK Panhandle.

36

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1219 AM CDT Fri May 17 2024

As of midnight, latest radar and satellite were seeing a handful
of light showers spread across the southeast portions of the
Panhandles. However, none of the terminals are expected to see any
major impacts from these showers with the overnight expected to
stick with high based cloud decks. There is a chance, given how
much residual moisture is present, that patchy fog or low-level
stratus decks could form by the early morning hours. However,
confidence isn`t the greatest for that possibility, so have
chosen to leave mention out of the current package. Otherwise,
expect VFR conditions to hold with Friday turning towards drier
weather.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                53  90  58  94 /   0   0   0   0
Beaver OK                  52  92  61  96 /   0   0  10  10
Boise City OK              50  87  53  91 /   0   0  10   0
Borger TX                  56  94  62  98 /   0   0   0   0
Boys Ranch TX              53  93  57  97 /   0   0   0   0
Canyon TX                  50  91  56  94 /   0   0   0   0
Clarendon TX               55  89  59  94 /   0   0   0   0
Dalhart TX                 46  89  52  92 /   0   0   0   0
Guymon OK                  51  89  57  95 /   0   0  10   0
Hereford TX                50  93  56  96 /   0   0   0   0
Lipscomb TX                55  91  62  93 /   0   0  10   0
Pampa TX                   55  89  61  94 /   0   0   0   0
Shamrock TX                56  89  61  93 /   0   0   0  10
Wellington TX              55  89  61  94 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...36
LONG TERM....36
AVIATION...11