Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boise, ID
Issued by NWS Boise, ID
102 FXUS65 KBOI 051011 AFDBOI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boise ID 411 AM MDT Sun May 5 2024 .SHORT TERM...Today through Tuesday night...Precipitation will wrap around a closed low as it tracks through northern NV today. This will put the focus of heavier precipitation across the w-central mtns early this morning and over SE Oregon through the day and into this evening. Cold air on the backside of the low is quickly dropping snow levels across SE Oregon and the Owyhee mtns this morning, setting up potential for accumulating snow down to 4kft MSL. Expect 3 to 8 inches above 5000 feet and over a foot possible across Steens Mtn. In SW Idaho snow levels will remain between 4500 feet along the ID/NV border to 5500 feet over the w-central mtns through this evening. The precipitation on the backside of the low will shift eastward tonight as the low crosses the Rockies. This will bring a break to the rain/snow across SE Oregon while increasing precipitation coverage and lowering snow levels across SW Idaho zones. By Monday morning snow levels of 3500-4500 feet could bring a mix of rain/snow or brief changeover to snow in the Snake Plain east of Boise. Low temperatures will remain above freezing so valley sites below 4500 feet will stay wet. Mountains will pick up additional snowfall overnight and see a further boost as a trailing upper wave brings another round of valley rain and mtn snow Monday into Tuesday. Westerly flow aloft will bring breezy winds each afternoon through Tuesday. The western Magic Valley will see the strongest winds and could be inline for a Wind Advisory on Tuesday. Temperatures are 10-15 degrees below normal through Tuesday. .LONG TERM...Wednesday through Sunday...An upper level trough will remain over the western US through Thursday, keeping temperatures cooler than normal. Temperatures will be around 10 degrees below normal on Wednesday before warming to near normal by Thursday. An upper level ridge is forecast to build over the Pacific NW and southwest Canada on Friday into the weekend. Record breaking temperatures possible over portions of the Pacific NW, but the center of the ridge will be north and west of our area, where the warmer temperatures are. Temperatures raise to around 5-10 degrees above normal for Saturday and Sunday. A weak trough lingers over the Great Basin Saturday and Sunday, with a threat of afternoon thunderstorms and slightly cooler temperatures. Forecast confidence is low on the strength of the trough and the placement. && .AVIATION...Generally MVFR to IFR with mountain obscuration in rain and snow. Snow levels 3500-4500ft, lowest over central OR, except 5500-6500ft MSL over central ID mountains. Surface winds: NW-SW 10- 20kt. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: variable 10-20kt becoming W-NW 20- 30kt by 00z/Mon. KBOI...VFR thru 16z/Sun then MVFR to IFR conditions at times in rain showers. Surface winds: SE 5-10kt thru 16z/Sun becoming W-NW 5-15kt. && .BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...None. OR...None. && $$ www.weather.gov/Boise Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSBoise www.twitter.com/NWSBoise SHORT TERM...DG LONG TERM....KA AVIATION.....KA