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000
FXUS65 KBOI 170256
AFDBOI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
856 PM MDT Tue Apr 16 2024

.DISCUSSION...A cold front moving through SE Oregon this evening
will cross SW Idaho overnight, accompanied by gusty winds to
around 30 mph. The breezy northwest winds will persist through
Wednesday, mainly across far southern Idaho. Cooler temperatures
follow the front with highs on Wednesday around 5 to 10 degrees
below normal. An upper trough will bring limited moisture
(generally dry but with clouds) through Wednesday, but there is
a 15 to 30 percent chance of snow showers in the West Central ID
mountains. No updates.

&&

.AVIATION...Mostly VFR. Areas of mountain obscuration and
isolated snow showers over West Central ID mountains (including
KMYL) tonight. Surface winds W-NW 10-20, with gusts to 30 kt
behind a frontal passage tonight. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL:
W-NW 20-30 kt.

KBOI...VFR. Mid/high level broken/overcast clouds tonight. NW
winds 5-15 kt.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...Tonight through Thursday night...An upper trough
will swing through the Intermountain NW tonight and Wednesday
bringing a mostly dry cold frontal passage. The west-central
Idaho mountains will see a 15-30% chance of showers overnight,
otherwise the front will be marked by an increase in winds.
Gusts to 35 mph are possible along the I-84 corridor from Baker
City to Twin Falls, and across higher mtns through early
Wednesday morning. Trailing shortwave energy will keep a 20-50%
chance of snow showers over the e-central Oregon and w-central
Idaho mountains on Wednesday while the rest of the region
remains dry. This pattern continues on Thursday with a slight
chance of showers (15%) persisting across NE Valley County.
Wednesday is the coolest day of the week as high temperatures
top out between 5 to 10 degrees below normal. Freezing
temperatures are possible in the Snake Plain Thursday morning,
with a 40-70% chance of temperatures reaching 32 degrees or
colder from Ontario to Mountain Home.

LONG TERM...Friday through Tuesday...Dry northwest flow on the
east side of an approaching upper level ridge will be in place
Friday. The ridge will pass over the area Sunday into Monday.
Some model runs show a shortwave trough to the north of the area
Saturday, and even indicate that it could be close enough to
bring a slight chance of showers to the northern mountains
Saturday night, but no significant weather is expected. Our
upper flow switches to slightly south of west behind the ridge
axis, and this may allow moisture aloft to increase...so to
account for that possibility there is a slight chance of showers
Tuesday (10-20%). Again, no significant weather is expected.
Temperatures will warm through the long term period, with
readings just a few degrees above normal Friday, but then rising
to around 10 degrees above normal Sat/Sun and 10-15 above
normal Mon/Tue. NBM is giving almost all of the Treasure and
western Magic Valleys a 40-60% chance of reaching 80 degrees
Tuesday. Winds will be typical for this time of year, and if
anything a little weaker than normal overall.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
OR...None.

&&

$$

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DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION.....BW
SHORT TERM...DG
LONG TERM....SP