986
FXUS61 KBTV 192332
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
732 PM EDT Sun May 19 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Temperatures will turn strongly warmer starting Tuesday as a strong
ridge of high pressure moves over our CWA. Record high temperatures
are at risk on Wednesday as valley locations should exceed 90. A
shortwave will come in Thursday, bringing an increased chance of
thunderstorms and decreased heat.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 730 PM EDT Sunday...As expected, skies are clearing west
to east with loss of heating and passage of an upper trough.
Extent of fog tonight will likely be less than last night given
no precipitation and another day of drying lowering surface
moisture.

Previous Discussion...Vermont and Northern New York are
currently under a SCT to BKN Cumulus deck. Skies will clear up
overnight with the potential for fog development. The favored
locations will be near the Adirondacks and in the Connecticut
River Valley. Temperatures tomorrow will be around 5 degrees
warmer than today as the ridge of high pressure moves overhead.
We could again see cumulus development, but will avoid any
thunderstorms.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 254 PM EDT Sunday...Tuesday is shaping to be an interesting day
across the North Country as we look both at anomalously warm
temperatures and the potential for strong convection. First off,
let`s look at the biggest impact which will be the widespread heat.
Models have trended slightly warmer with the airmass that will be
advecting across the region early this week which has increased
confidence that we will see temperatures push into the mid to upper
80s with the possibility of a few 90 degree readings. Luckily,
higher dewpoints will be suppressed to the south with dewpoints only
climbing into the lower 60s Tuesday afternoon. However, given
temperatures nearly 20 degrees above normal and some increase of low
level moisture, the potential for strong, and even a few severe,
thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon is looking increasingly likely.
Global guidance and the NAM is coming into better agreement on a
decent shortwave moving across the North Country Tuesday afternoon.
When you have synoptic forcing, good thermodynamics, and moisture,
you have all the ingredients you`ll need for thunderstorms.

Given the latest guidance, it appears the greatest potential for any
strong or severe storms on Tuesday will reside near the
International Border but could propagate further south should the
position of the shortwave shift south. Model soundings show nearly
1000 J/kg of DCAPE with LCLs close to 800 mb. These soundings show
textbook example for how thunderstorms can produce strong wind gust
as they begin to collapse as the updrafts weaken. The question
remains on how widespread shower and thunderstorm activity will be
on Tuesday and right now we are generally carrying a 30-40 percent
chance of storms. Confidence is relatively high we will see a few
strong storms but exactly when and were are questions that`ll get
answered as Tuesday draws closer.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 254 PM EDT Sunday...Wednesday is shaping up to the be the
warmest day of this upcoming week of elevated heat risk. Given the
latest trends in the ensembles, we have decided to warm temperatures
several degrees for Wednesday with several sites in the Champlain
and Connecticut River Valley now expected to reach or exceed 90
degrees. Dew points will be low enough to keep up below heat
advisory criteria but make no mistake, this heat will be dangerous
up in the North Country. We are yet to be acclimated to such heat
given it`s mid May so be sure to follow all safety tips such as
limiting outdoor activities, drinking water, and taking frequent
breaks. We will be posting heat safety material on our social media
accounts for those interested. We could see an isolated thunderstorm
or two on Wednesday given the warm temperatures but the lack of any
synoptic forcing should limit areal coverage. The environment will
be conducive for strong to possibly even severe storms but storms
would be far and few.

We are looking at a more widespread rain event on Thursday but there
is still a lot of question to when precipitation will move through
the North Country. The GFS continues to be on the faster side as the
ridge doesn`t build as far north as was thought several days ago
which would bring showers and thunderstorms but of the garden
variety. However, shear looks most impressive on Thursday which
could come into play if a frontal system is slower to move through
the region on Thursday. Everyone should keep an eye on Thursday but
right now doesn`t look too concerning. On a more positive note,
following the strong frontal passage on Thursday, we will see a
return of seasonal temperatures for the end of the week and Memorial
Day Weekend. Those with outdoor plans this upcoming weekend should
expect lows in the 50s, highs in the upper 60s to low 70s with
partly to mostly sunny skies.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR conditions continue through the TAF period, with the only
possible exception of MPV developing fog overnight. Currently seeing
widespread Cu deck that will clear off when diurnal heating shuts
down. Low level winds could die off in the vicinity of MPV allowing
for creation of FG near sunrise, but conditions aren`t favorable for
more than short duration IFR.

Outlook...

Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Tuesday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Wednesday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance
SHRA.
Thursday: MVFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight
chance SHRA.
Friday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record High Temperatures:

May 22:
KBTV: 93/1977
KMPV: 90/1994
KMSS: 89/1977
KSLK: 91/1911


Record High Minimum Temperatures:

May 22:
KBTV: 70/1911
KPBG: 65/1975
KSLK: 63/1921

May 23:
KPBG: 65/1964

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Langbauer
NEAR TERM...Boyd/Langbauer
SHORT TERM...Clay
LONG TERM...Clay
AVIATION...Langbauer
CLIMATE...