Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT
Issued by NWS Billings, MT
998 FXUS65 KBYZ 130150 AFDBYZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Billings MT 750 PM MDT Sat Jul 12 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Warm (upper 80s and 90s) and dry through Monday. - Much cooler with a good chance of precipitation Monday night into Thursday next week. - Conditions become dry with highs near normal (mid 80s to low 90s) by the end of the week. && .UPDATE... Our region is underneath a dry/anticyclonic NW flow aloft with above normal heights. This allowed for temps to reach the upper 80s and lower 90s today. After a fairly mild night tonight, we should see lower-mid 90s on Sunday...and the backing flow aloft may yield isolated weak convection over the Beartooth-Absarokas by evening. Forecast is in good shape. Have made just a few tweaks to temps, sky & winds per current trends. JKL && .DISCUSSION... Rest of Today through Monday Night... After a morning with chilly temperatures in the 40s to low 50s, temperatures have roared back up to the upper 80s as of 1pm, with highs in the low 90s still expected later this afternoon. Winds are slightly breezy, gusting 20 to 30 mph this afternoon as well. Upper-level flow flattens a bit on Sunday, keeping warm and dry conditions around, but with slightly lighter winds across the area. A pattern change to wet and cool conditions will occur behind a frontal passage on Monday. While timing of the front is still uncertain, latest guidance is pointing to a phased passage, with a drastic wind shift Monday morning, but winds not picking up until later in the morning and early afternoon. The onset of the cooler weather is also uncertain behind the front, so Monday`s high temp forecast has a range from 85-95. This change to slightly unsettled weather will bring a small chance for storms across southeastern Montana. Vertz Tuesday through Saturday... As a trough moves across the region, conditions will remain cooler and unsettled into Thursday. There is still disagreement between the models on how quickly this system will exit the region, which will impact the chance of precipitation and how cool temperatures will be Thursday. Currently, there is a 50-70% chance (highest over the mountains) of at least 0.25 inch of precip over much of the region Tuesday through Thursday. With the cooler temperatures, snow levels look to drop just below 12,000 feet in the overnight hours, leading to a 20% chance of light snow over the highest peaks. Models are in better agreement for ridging to build in for the end of the week, returning temperatures to near normal. There are also signals that unsettled weather will return by early next week. Highs will be in the 60s and 70s Tuesday and Wednesday, with a 40-60% chance that highs will remain below 70 for most of the region. By Thursday, temperatures are expected to warm, although how much will depend on when the system exits the region. Currently, highs are expected to be in the 70s to low 80s. By Friday and Saturday, highs will be near normal, in the mid 80s to near 90. Archer && .AVIATION... VFR conditions will prevail through Sunday. Winds will become light overnight. Archer && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS... Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat ----------------------------------------------------------- BIL 060/095 064/094 059/067 054/067 051/080 056/085 057/089 00/U 01/U 56/T 64/T 11/B 11/U 10/U LVM 052/093 056/093 053/068 047/069 045/083 049/086 051/088 00/U 12/T 57/T 63/T 12/T 21/U 11/U HDN 057/095 061/094 059/069 053/067 049/081 054/086 056/089 00/U 01/U 55/T 74/T 21/B 21/U 10/U MLS 060/096 063/094 061/072 053/067 051/077 055/083 058/088 00/U 10/U 55/T 64/T 21/B 21/U 10/U 4BQ 060/093 066/094 062/072 055/067 053/075 057/084 058/086 00/U 01/U 44/T 74/T 31/B 20/U 10/U BHK 055/092 063/095 056/069 050/064 047/072 051/081 055/085 00/U 01/U 45/T 64/T 21/B 21/U 21/U SHR 052/092 058/092 056/072 050/070 046/080 051/086 052/088 00/U 01/U 45/T 75/T 21/B 11/U 11/U && .BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...None. WY...None. && $$ weather.gov/billings