215
FXUS61 KCTP 090257
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1057 PM EDT Tue Jul 8 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
* Similar weather setup for Wednesday with renewed damaging
  wind and flash flooding risks focused over southeast PA
* Continued seasonably warm and humid with scattered afternoon
  and evening thunderstorms through the weekend

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Hires models show the majority of showers/storms will shift to
the east before midnight (in fact, most guidance has the bulk of
the convective activity winding down before 8 PM). Min temps
will be a bit cooler than last night, with fog likely forming in
the valleys through the predawn hours Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Similar overall synoptic setup on Wednesday & Thursday with
gradual southward shift to the severe t-storm and FF risk areas
coincident with zone of max PW. Conditions will remain humid and
with daytime highs in the 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The forecast for Friday and the weekend is more uncertain, with
some guidance suggesting a break in the unsettled pattern, and
others suggesting active weather continues. An active pattern
would favor continue heat/humidity while a quieter pattern could
support the intrusion of lower dewpoints and more refreshing
conditions.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
In the wake of a cold front, areas that have received locally
heavy rainfall this evening will have higher potential for fog
and widespread visibility restrictions overnight. At this time,
have progged AOO/UNV towards LIFR conditions overnight; however,
model guidance indicates some potential at all airfields except
for MDT/LNS. Have stuck with guidance trends; however, will
have to continue to monitor trends at MDT/LNS with heavy
rainfall and fog potential overnight.

After sunrise on Wednesday (12Z Wed - 18Z Wed), model guidance
shows fair agreement with respect to restrictions being lifted
by 12Z for most airfields. The 18Z TAF package does set the goal
post slightly wider, with widespread restrictions lifting
closer to 13-14Z give some lingering low-level moisture in RAP
model soundings.

Outlook...

Wed...Best chance for storms and restrictions in southern PA.

Thu-Sun...Potential for showers and thunderstorms, mainly
aftn/eve.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Steinbugl/Colbert
NEAR TERM...Steinbugl/Colbert
SHORT TERM...Steinbugl/Colbert
LONG TERM...Lambert/Colbert
AVIATION...NPB/RXR