475
FXUS63 KDDC 031900
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
200 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024

...Updated Short/Long Term...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Much needed rainfall expected across much of southwest Kansas
  Friday night and early Saturday. Some strong to marginally
  severe thunderstorms are possible.

- North winds and cooler air Saturday.

- Severe thunderstorms are expected in Kansas Monday, with the
  risk of hail and tornadoes east of US 283 Monday afternoon and
  evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 200 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024

Midday surface observations showed moist advection well underway
into SW KS, with southeast winds established, and dewpoints
rising with time. Southeast winds will continue to increase
through this afternoon, as surface pressures fall from SE
Colorado into NW KS. With satellite imagery indicating midlevel
cloud eroding quickly, temperatures will easily warm into the
70s this afternoon. With a lack of a forcing mechanism, kept the
forecast dry (pops < 15%) through 7 pm. That stated, some CAMs
such as 12z ARW suggests thunderstorms may be entering the far
NW zones (Hamilton) around that time.

Any initial thunderstorm activity Friday evening would favor the
western zones, west of US 83, in a modest CAPE/shear parameter
space supportive of at least marginal supercell structures.
Rotating updrafts will be capable of 1-2 inch diameter hail this
evening. Clearly the much richer moisture will remain locked up
in West Texas through tonight, so moisture quality will be
limited, keeping instability relatively muted. Still, dewpoints
well into the 50s will support organized linear convection along
and behind the expected strong cold front tonight. The cold
front is forecast to reach the far NW zones about 10 pm, race to
a DDC-LBL line by midnight, and exit the southeast CWA no later
than 4 am Saturday. Most of the forcing for ascent will be post
frontal, with the highly anticipated rainfall and embedded
thunder occurring after the abrupt northerly wind shift.
Rainfall amounts of 0.25-0.50 inch are expected to be common,
but since it will only be raining 3-5 hours at any one location,
amounts of up to 1 inch may be difficult to achieve.
Regardless, any rainfall on our dusty parched topsoils will be
welcomed with open arms. Marginally severe wind/hail (58 mph,
quarters) are possible within tonight`s expected line of
convection, per SPC Day 1 probabilities, but modest CAPE should
keep this threat muted. Outside of storms, north winds will be
strong after midnight, gusting 30-40 mph. Rainfall will be
wrapping up quickly from NW to SE Saturday morning, with low
clouds and strong north winds.

Cooler high pressure surface ridging builds in Saturday,
weakening as it enters Kansas, providing a noticeably cooler
day. Model guidance shows a net cooling of 6-8C at 850 mb versus
Friday, with afternoon temperatures reduced to the 60s. Even
with partial sunshine and diminishing northeast winds, afternoon
temperatures will be 5-10 degrees below normal for early May.

The process of warm/moist advection is expected to begin
Saturday night and early Sunday, with light easterly winds and
increasing clouds. Models have unanimously pulled back on rain
production during this time, and reduced pops for Saturday
night/early Sunday significantly. Temperatures will commonly be
in the 40s sunrise Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 200 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024

Powerful, cold midlevel cyclone near 544 dm in strength is
forecast to be over Nevada midday Sunday, western Wyoming
at 7 am Monday, and eject into the western Dakotas, well
north of SW KS, through 7 pm Monday.

Related leeside cyclogenesis/lee troughing along the I-25
corridor will accelerate southeast winds Sunday afternoon, with
the strongest winds across western zones. This synoptic
evolution will begin the process of dragging higher quality
moisture into SW KS from the Gulf of Mexico, with dewpoints
expected to reach into the lower 60s by Sunday evening.
Convection potential Sunday and Sunday night looks very low,
with a strong EML capping inversion and relatively cool boundary
layer temperatures in the 60s and 70s keeping things rather
stable despite the increasing moisture. Feel slight chance pops
from the NBM this period are too high, and most locations will
remain dry. Increased south/southeast winds to the 90%ile of the
NBM.

An intense low level jet will keep south winds strong and gusty,
and temperatures elevated, Sunday night through Monday morning.
Temperatures through sunrise Monday will easily hold in the 50s
all zones, as dewpoints and surface moisture continue to
improve. Intense trough will eject onto the plains, with an
increasingly negative tilt, into NW Nebraska, through 7 pm
Monday. This northern track will essentially dryslot much of SW
KS, with strong SWly winds, and blowing dust and wildfire risk
behind the dryline. This scenario is most preferred by 12z
GFS/GEFS solutions, but as is typical, they are probably at
least somewhat too progressive. 12z ECMWF/EPS members are slower
with ejection, and as such are slower with the dryline`s
advancement into central Kansas Monday afternoon. Dryline
placement will be critical for sensible weather impacts in SW KS
Monday, with intense wind/dust/fire concerns west of it, and
potentially high end severe potential east of it. Latest 12z
ECMWF solution strongly suggests the dryline and convective
initiation zone will be somewhere in the eastern DDC CWA at peak
heating 4-5 pm Monday. In other words, confidence is good the
severe threat will be focused east of Dodge City/US 283, but
any thunderstorms that develop will be capable of hail 2-4
inches in diameter and strong tornadoes. The combination of
quality moisture and jet dynamics in a strongly sheared
environment suggest high end supercells are probable; the
question is where do they form, and how much time they will
spend in the DDC CWA. West of the dryline, southwest winds will
easily gust 40-50 mph Monday afternoon, with areas of blowing
dust. Wildfire danger headlines are expected along and west of
US 83. Again increased winds to the 90%ile of the NBM. Included
blowing dust in the grids for the western zones, and mentioned
severe wording in the eastern 1/4 of the CWA Monday afternoon.

No cold air advection is expected behind this system, with
westerly downslope components ensuring lower to mid 80s Tuesday
afternoon. From Tuesday onward, the forecast will be dry and
unusually convectively quiet for May, as the moisture supply
from the Gulf of Mexico will be cutoff from SW KS through at
least next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1001 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024

VFR is expected to continue at all airports through at least
00z Sat. Broken mid level clouds will prevail through Friday
afternoon with increasing S/SE winds, gusting to near 25 kts.
A strong cold front is scheduled to sweep through the airports
in the 06-09z Sat time range, accompanied by an abrupt, strong
northerly wind shift, gusting to near 30 kts. Numerous rain
showers and thunderstorms are expected to accompany frontal
passage. Confidence was high enough to include convective
TEMPO groups in this 18z set of TAFs for all airports, in this
06-09z range. Outflow winds from the strongest storms may
approach 50 kts. Rain showers are expected to diminish from
NW to SE through 12z Sat, with widespread MVFR stratus ceilings
through Saturday morning.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Turner
LONG TERM...Turner
AVIATION...Turner