Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 251740
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1240 PM CDT Wed Apr 25 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday night)
Issued at 201 AM CDT Wed Apr 25 2018

Cool well below normal temperatures will prevail today as upper
level wave and associated rain showers move eastward. Clouds will
gradually erode from west to east with central Kansas seeing some
sunshine later this afternoon.

Meanwhile next upper level wave currently over British Columbia is
expected to affect the region on Thursday. The precipitation
signal with this system is much weaker compared to today`s upper
level wave. A cold front will push southward across Kansas for
Thursday afternoon/night. The airmass is not too terribly cold
behind the front, therefore daytime highs will only be slightly
below normal for Friday.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 201 AM CDT Wed Apr 25 2018

Confidence remains high that warm above normal temperatures will
prevail this period for Kansas, as models show a pattern change from
northwest flow aloft transitioning to deep southwest flow. This
pattern change will also open up the Gulf of Mexico with richer
spring-like moisture streaming northward into Kansas for next week.
The ingredients will be in place for thunderstorms and possible
severe weather to affect the southern/central plains. Latest long
range model projections are favoring a Tuesday-Thursday period
next week for possible occurrence, and this will be a period to
watch over the upcoming days.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1232 PM CDT Wed Apr 25 2018

Aviation concerns will continue to be low clouds/rain today and
fog tonight.

Upper low continues to spin over northeast KS with wrap-around
showers affecting most of northeast KS, getting into the northeast
portion of forecast area. In addition, drizzle has been ongoing
for areas along and east of I-135 this morning with this expected
to continue. May see visibilities reduced to around 3sm with the
drizzle. Should continue to see pockets of IFR ceilings today for
areas along and east of I-135 as ceilings start to lift to VFR
levels from west to east this evening.

May see some fog overnight across the Flint Hills back to as far
west as KHUT. KICT & KHUT look to be the terminals most affected
with IFR levels possible after 08z. This will be due to low
clouds clearing off setting up good radiation cooling conditions.
Moist ground also won`t hurt the fog potential.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 201 AM CDT Wed Apr 25 2018

Fire weather concerns will remain low across the region for the next
four days due to rainfall today, followed by lighter winds for
Thursday-Saturday. South winds will begin to increase for Sunday
into next week, however the low level moisture will also increase
which should raise the relative humidity levels. The grassland
fire danger levels could reach very high levels during the
afternoon hours on Sunday-Tuesday for mainly central Kansas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    53  38  69  40 /  80   0  10  10
Hutchinson      53  36  68  38 /  60   0  10  10
Newton          52  37  69  38 /  70   0  10  10
ElDorado        52  38  69  40 / 100  10  10  10
Winfield-KWLD   53  38  70  40 /  90   0  10  20
Russell         58  35  65  35 /  20   0  10   0
Great Bend      57  36  66  36 /  20   0  10  10
Salina          53  36  67  37 /  80   0  10  10
McPherson       53  35  68  37 /  60   0  10  10
Coffeyville     55  44  70  44 / 100  60  10  20
Chanute         54  42  68  42 / 100  70  10  10
Iola            54  41  68  42 / 100  70  10  10
Parsons-KPPF    55  43  69  43 / 100  80  10  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CDJ
LONG TERM...CDJ
AVIATION...RBL
FIRE WEATHER...CDJ


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