254
FXUS64 KLCH 161200
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
700 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday night)
Issued at 342 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024

Ongoing, poorly forecast, scattered showers this morning has kept
any appreciable fog from developing across the region. This
development, despite a fairly dry surface to 500 mb layer, will
likely persist through the morning as additional moisture advects
into the area along an advancing warm front and upper level trof.
Precipitation continues to show development in two, somewhat
discreet, waves over the next 36 hours. The first will occur as
the aforementioned trof traverses the area. PoPs will increase
through the day reaching an apex late this afternoon through late
tonight as the trof crosses the area. Forecast soundings continue
to show PWAT values over two inches supporting the potential for
very heavy rainfall. The inherited Flash Flood Watch appears
representative and no changes were made to it this morning. WPC
has introduced a relatively rare high risk area across Tyler,
northern Jasper, and northern Newton counties in Southeast Texas
as well as Vernon and northern Beauregard parishes in Western
Louisiana. Statistically, 1/3 of all flood related fatalities and
80% of flood related damage occur in areas outlined in high risk
areas by WPC. These areas have already seen significant rainfall
totals this spring and soils and area waterways remain full so it
won`t take but a short duration of heavy rainfall for flash
flooding to begin. Expect Flash Flood Warnings to be issued
liberally.

In addition to the high risk of flash flooding, forecast shear and
instability continue to support the development of a few
supercells and MCS clusters capable of damaging straight line
winds. As with the flash flood threat, this looks most likely
across Southeast Texas with the severe risk lessening somewhat
across South Central Louisiana primarily because the majority of
the convection will be moving across south central LA late tonight
into early Friday morning. Damaging winds and large hail appear to
be the highest overall threat, but a few tornadoes will also be
possible.

There`s been a signal within guidance on a lull between the first
wave of activity and a second wave associated with a weak frontal
boundary that will push through the area Friday afternoon through
early Saturday morning. Best estimate right now is that lull will
occur sometime from a little after midnight Friday morning
through mid to late Friday morning. Keep in mind that while the
lull may be noticeable, scattered convection will likely continue
across the region even between the two more widespread waves of
precip. The second wave poses a slightly lower overall flash flood
risk as it will be moving through the region faster, but it does
have the potential to exacerbate what will likely be ongoing Flash
Flooding from Thursday evening. Storms Friday and Friday night
will also have the potential to become severe with damaging winds
being the primary threat along an eastward advancing MCS.

Guidance has been fairly consistent in maintaining some wrap
around moisture across the region through Saturday afternoon so
not ruling out the possibility of a few, lighter showers
continuing into Saturday morning, but the vast majority of
activity should be clear by sunrise Saturday with skies clearing
by Saturday afternoon.

Jones

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 342 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024

The main story of the long term continues to be the expected dry
weather with warm temperatures as mid/upper-level ridging develops.
High temps are expected to mostly run in the lower 90s throughout
the long term, while overnight lows are expected to gradually rise
to the 70s on account of the increasing dewpoints on a developing
srly low-level flow as sfc high pressure moves east of the area.

The longer range models are advertising a pair of disturbances
crossing to our north towards the end of the forecast period which
will attempt to break down the ridging...however as of now, blended
guidance continues to keep all rain chances north of the forecast
area.

25

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 657 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024

A long duration heavy rainfall event will develop early this
afternoon from west to east gradually overspreading all terminals.
Rainfall will have the potential to reduce visibilities to a mile
or less at times. In addition to the heavy rainfall threat, some
storms may become severe. Precip will continue through much of the
night becoming less widespread by around sunrise Friday. While
winds in the vicinity of storms will have the potential to be
strong and gusty, gradient winds will remain southeasterly around
10 knots.

Jones

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 342 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024

Widespread showers and thunderstorms will develop across the
coastal waters beginning this morning and continuing through
Friday evening as a low pressure system moves across the area.
Onshore flow will increase to between 15 and 20 knots today as the
low approaches increasing seas to 4-5 feet. Winds and seas could
be significantly stronger in the vicinity of storms. Winds will
weaken by Friday afternoon with seas gradually falling through the
weekend. No precip is expected this weekend through next week as
light onshore flow prevails.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  85  65  83  67 /  50  90  40  40
LCH  85  70  85  72 /  80  70  50  40
LFT  87  72  88  74 /  60  70  50  50
BPT  84  72  86  72 /  80  60  40  30

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Flood Watch from 1 PM CDT this afternoon through Friday
     afternoon for LAZ027>033-044-045-141>143-152-241>243.

TX...Flood Watch from 1 PM CDT this afternoon through Friday
     afternoon for TXZ180-201-259>262-515-516-615-616.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...66
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...66