Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
206 FXUS65 KLKN 291015 AFDLKN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Elko NV 315 AM PDT Mon Apr 29 2024 .SYNOPSIS...An upper-level disturbance will bring a few showers to northern Elko county this afternoon along with gusty west to northwest winds for much of northern Nevada. Gusty northwest winds will continue into Tuesday in addition to bringing colder air into the state for Wednesday with highs only in the 50s. Dry conditions and a warming trend along with lighter winds are expected for the latter part of the week but another storm system could bring more active weather to the region over the weekend and into next week. && .SHORT TERM...Today through Tuesday night Brisk west to northwest surface winds are expected to today across much of northern Nevada as moderately strong mid-level winds move over the region. Downslope enhancement of winds is expected leeward of mountain ranges across much of Elko county so a wind advisory is in place. Associated upper- level trough moving through Idaho today will promote a few showers and thunderstorms across northern Elko county today. Chances for any precipitation are highest across the Jarbidge Wilderness area. High temperatures will range from the 50s and 60s I-80 northward and lower 70s across northern Nye county. Lows tonight will be in the mid 20s across much of ELko county with some mid 30s remaining across northern Nye county. Breezy west winds, albeit slightly lower in speed, are expected again on Tuesday as a mid-level jet remains overhead. Winds of 15-25mph from the west will be common, switching to the northwest by late afternoon and evening. Temperatures will be a bit cooler across northern Nevada with highs mainly in the 50s. Lows tonight and Tuesday night will be in the mid 20s across much of ELko county with some mid 30s remaining across northern Nye county. .LONG TERM...Wednesday through next Sunday. Wednesday afternoon and evening a positively tilted trough will begin to propagate east and out of the region. Northwest winds will be elevated with the trough passage particularly across ridgetops of northern and eastern Nevada. In general winds may reach 15-20 mph with gusts to 25 mph. Some ridgetops may experience stronger afternoon winds. Some isolated to scattered snow showers are also forecasted across Elko county, mainly north of I-80 to the NV/ID state line. Generally any accumulating snowfall will occur in the Jarbidge Wilderness area, Owyhee, and Mountain City areas, with up to half an inch forecasted in those areas. Elsewhere, fairly quiet weather is expected. Highs will be in the 40s to mid 50s, with nighttime lows in the mid 20s to low 30s. Thursday and Friday some weak ridging moves in behind the departing trough from Wednesday. Winds are forecasted to be out the west to southwest at times allowing for warm air to advect in and drive up temperatures. Highs Thursday are forecasted to range in the upper 50s to lower 60s for most, with highs Friday ranging in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Weather conditions are expected to be dry, with mostly sunny skies. Lows Thursday will warm to the mid to upper 30s, and will warm again Friday night into the 40s. Saturday, models and ensembles remain unsettled on a solution, with indications of an off-shore low approaching the west coast sometime Saturday. The placement and intensity of the off-shore low are the details that still need to be sorted out. For Nevada, Saturday looks to be the warmest day on the horizon with southwesterly winds driving temperatures into the mid to upper 70s. Clouds will be increasing throughout the day. Lows will generally be in the mid to lower 40s. Isolated to scattered showers do creep into the forecast in the afternoon Saturday, mainly along an north of the I-80 corridor. There is still much uncertainly over the showers, with currently a 10-30% chance of occurrence. Sunday, ensembles are seeing a stronger signature of a pattern change, likely indicating the offshore low from Saturday progressing into the intermountain west. Clusters 2 and 3 with the heaviest ensemble weights in the GFS (57%) and Canadian (45%) are the clusters showing the strongest signature of a trough located in the general vicinity of the OR/CA coast. Generally, isolated to scattered showers will be possible with 10-30% chance of occurrence at this point. Areas most likely to see showers are along and north of the I-80 corridor, however areas across Northern Lander and Northern Eureka could see some as well. Rainfall amounts are challenging to forecast do to the uncertainty in large scale system placement, but no major rainfall amounts are currently forecasted. Highs Sunday will cool down a tad, ranging in the mid to upper 60s, with lows in the upper 30s to lower 40s. && .AVIATION...VFR conditions are expected at all terminals over the next 24 hours. Westerly winds will increase across the region this morning, with afternoon and evening winds of 10-15G20-25KTS at most terminals. && .HYDROLOGY...Elevated flows continue across several streams, creeks, and rivers throughout northern and central Nevada due to continued snow melt and recent rainfall. Cooler temperatures are expected the next few days, including freezing temperatures at night at higher elevations, which will likely slow high elevation snow melt. A few showers are expected this afternoon across far northern Nevada but are expected to be insignificant in terms of hydrology with a few hundredths of an inch of rain at best. The Bruneau River is currently in action stage and will likely remain in action stage for the next several days. The Humboldt River at Battle Mountain is currently in minor flood stage and is forecast to gradually rise in the coming days, but remain in minor flood stage. The Humboldt River at Comus is currently in minor flood stage and is forecast to gradually rise in the coming days, remaining in minor flood stage. The Marys River near Deeth is currently in action stage and is forecast to gradually fall over the next several days, falling below action state as early as this afternoon. The Owyhee River near Wildhorse is currently in action stage and is forecast to gradually fall over the next several days, remaining in action stage. The Owyhee River near Mountain City is currently in minor flood stage. The river is forecast to gradually fall below minor flood stage late this week. && .LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories... Wind Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 10 PM PDT this evening Ruby Mountains and East Humboldt Range...South Central Elko County...Southeastern Elko County. && $$ 93/91/96