188
FXUS64 KMAF 111724
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1224 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 310 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024

Each successive model run keeps pulling back on rainfall amounts for
today and tonight. Current radar certainly doesn`t disagree showing
absolutely nothing as of early this morning. Hi-res models indicate
low level moisture advection over the cool post frontal airmass will
receive additional lift today with the approach of an upper
disturbance, but instability is not terribly high and the scattered
nature of the showers may prevent widespread decent rainfall for
many. However we are still expecting showers and thunderstorms to
develop in southeastern New Mexico and the northwestern Permian
Basin late this morning and early afternoon even though coverage may
not be as dense as we might hope for. CAPE values max out at around
1500J/Kg which is enough to create a severe weather threat though
convective inhibition will be enough to prevent a significant severe
threat and SPC`s marginal risk seems about right. Storms may congeal
into a mini MCS in the northeastern Permian Basin later tonight and
locations east of Midland will have a better chance at widespread
decent rainfall amounts. The farther west you go the luckier you
will have to be to see rain. Drier air moving in from the west will
keep all rain in the eastern Permian Basin on Sunday.

Abundant cloud cover will keep a low diurnal temperature range today
even if we get little rainfall. Those areas that get rain will of
course be cooler, but still highs in the 60s and 70s will be nice
for the middle of May. Continuing clouds keep temps from dropping
much tonight, then clearing skies tomorrow from westerly winds help
send temps back to near normal as highs once again are in the 80s
and 90s. You can`t keep the heat away long around here this time of
year.

Hennig

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 310 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024

Rain chances reach back towards zero Sunday night and into Monday
morning as the upper low that will have brought rain this weekend
moves further to the east. Weak high pressure moves in behind the
low and clears skies for Monday and Tuesday. High temperatures
rebound into the 80s to low 90s for most. Lows each morning settle
into the 50s for the higher elevations and areas north of I-10 and
in the 60s for areas to the south. The next upper low draws near
during the middle and looks to aid in the development of showers and
storms. Guidance continues to allude to a dryline sharpening up over
the central portion of the CWA. A cold front moves through on
Thursday and briefly brings temperatures back below average before
Friday and Saturday see afternoon highs rise again.

-Stickney

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1218 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024

TSRA currently moving across the Permian Basin affecting KMAF for
the next couple of hours. Also seeing MVFR CIGs at KMAF and KHOB
as well. VFR is expected to return to all terminals this afternoon
before clouds lower again tonight. MVFR/IFR CIGs likely won`t lift
until late morning Sunday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               70  60  86  57 /  80  50  50  10
Carlsbad                 75  59  87  56 /  40  30   0   0
Dryden                   80  66  95  65 /  40  40  10  10
Fort Stockton            78  64  93  61 /  60  40  10   0
Guadalupe Pass           73  56  78  56 /  50  20   0   0
Hobbs                    68  57  86  54 /  60  40  10   0
Marfa                    84  52  85  49 /  50  40   0   0
Midland Intl Airport     67  61  88  58 /  70  40  20   0
Odessa                   68  62  89  59 /  70  40  10   0
Wink                     75  62  91  58 /  60  30   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....93
AVIATION...29