918
FXUS62 KMFL 090541
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
141 AM EDT Thu May 9 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 721 PM EDT Wed May 8 2024

No major changes this evening as the weather remains benign. The
rip current statement remains in effect for the Palm Beaches
through at least tomorrow evening. Otherwise, the dry conditions
are expected to persist for the most part tonight as temperatures
slowly fall as the sun sets. No additional updates are anticipated
through midnight. Have a wonderful Wednesday evening!

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Thursday)
Issued at 1237 PM EDT Wed May 8 2024

An expansive mid level ridge centered over the southwestern
Gulf of Mexico will continue to build eastward towards South
Florida through the rest of this afternoon and into Thursday
while high pressure at the surface remains in place over the
western Atlantic. With a northwesterly wind flow aloft, a drier
air mass will push into the region this afternoon heading into
Thursday. This will keep the chances of showers and storms very
limited, however, there may be just enough lingering lower level
moisture across the Lake Okeechobee region to support an isolated
shower or storm where the sea breezes interact late this
afternoon. Any shower or storm that does develop will be short
lived and will quickly diminish after sunset due to loss of
diurnal heating. Low temperatures tonight will generally range
from the upper 60s across the Lake Okeechobee region to the
mid to upper 70s across the east coast metro areas.

With many areas seeing a good deal of sunshine on Thursday, the
heat will return as high temperatures soar into the upper 80s and
lower 90s across the coastal areas while the interior sections
rise into the mid to upper 90s. Heat index values may reach the
triple digits especially across interior portions of Southwest
Florida in the afternoon on Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 257 PM EDT Wed May 8 2024

The upper level ridge will break down Friday into the weekend as
longwave troughing sets up over the eastern CONUS. An associated
weak cold front will advect southwards into the Florida Peninsula on
Friday and eventually arrive in South Florida by Saturday morning
before stalling. This boundary will be a highly weak one and thus
not have strong forcing, plus the upper level pattern will be
lacking energy as well as it will be quasi-zonal. Therefore, limited
convective showers and storms are expected across the region for the
weekend but there still is likely to be some isolated convection
since moisture is sufficient (PWATs around 1.2-1/4") and some
locations could reach their local convective temperature. Weak
ridging will rebuild on Sunday, inhibiting rain chances for Sunday
and into early next week.

This benign upper level pattern is projected to remain in place
through the middle of next week, keeping conditions mostly dry.
However, slight chance PoPs will be maintained as several vorticity
impulses, adequate moisture pooling and hot temperatures could lead
to isolated convection in the afternoon hours each day.

Southerly flow ahead of the front will lead to widespread
temperatures in the low to mid 90s on Friday. The hot temperatures
will continue daily through the rest of the long term with low to
mid 90s for most locations. The east and west coasts will both be in
the mid 80s on certain days depending on the wind direction. Heat
indices will climb into the 100s several days through the long term
period, but no counties are expected to reach heat advisory
criteria.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 141 AM EDT Thu May 9 2024

Generally VFR through the period with light southeasterly flow
turning more southerly as it picks up later this morning. APF
could see another Gulf sea breeze develop and turn the wind out of
the west to southwest by the afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1237 PM EDT Wed May 8 2024

A moderate to fresh southeasterly wind flow will continue across
the Atlantic waters through tonight. These winds will gradually
become more southerly on Thursday and then southwesterly on Friday
as a frontal boundary approaches the region. Across the Gulf,
moderate southeasterly wind flow tonight will also gradually
become more south to southwesterly heading towards the end of the
week. The chances of showers and thunderstorms will increase
during the first part of the weekend as a frontal boundary moves
closer to the region.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 1237 PM EDT Wed May 8 2024

A high risk of rip currents will continue across the Palm Beaches
through Thursday while a moderate risk of rip currents remains in
place across the beaches of Broward and Miami Dade Counties.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1237 PM EDT Wed May 8 2024

As a drier air mass filters into the region, minimum relative
humidity values each afternoon through the rest of the week could
range between 30 and 35 percent over the interior portions of
South Florida. This could lead to enhanced fire weather conditions
across these areas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            91  75  92  76 /   0   0   0  10
West Kendall     91  72  94  72 /   0   0   0  10
Opa-Locka        91  74  94  75 /   0   0   0  10
Homestead        89  74  92  74 /   0   0   0  10
Fort Lauderdale  89  75  91  76 /   0   0  10  10
N Ft Lauderdale  90  75  93  76 /   0   0  10  10
Pembroke Pines   90  75  96  76 /   0   0   0  10
West Palm Beach  92  73  94  73 /   0   0  10  10
Boca Raton       89  74  95  74 /   0   0  10  20
Naples           89  75  88  76 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for FLZ168.

AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CWC
LONG TERM....Redman
AVIATION...Culver