480
FXUS63 KMPX 121140
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
640 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hazardous air quality this weekend from Canadian wildfire
  smoke.

- Isolated thunderstorms possible Sunday evening. More
  widespread rain likely Tuesday-Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 201 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

Very poor air quality has developed overnight as smoke from
Canadian wildfires continues to accompany cooler & drier air
behind a cold front. AQI values are at unhealthy to very
unhealthy levels across the state, & may decrease further
through sunrise as the smoke settles closer to the surface. HRRR
smoke forecasts model another wave of dense smoke
concentrations this afternoon, so today is a great day to take
air pollution precautions by limiting strenuous outdoor
activities & remaining indoors if possible. The smoke will clear
out of the area Sunday morning, however we`ll have to monitor
the potential for another round of smoke Sunday night,
especially across northern & central Minnesota.

Other than the smoke, our weather will be quiet this weekend
under weak high pressure & drier air behind the cold front. A
weak boundary moves through the area Sunday afternoon, which
could initiate a few showers & thunderstorms late Sunday
afternoon & evening. The next chance for widespread rain looks to
come Tuesday into Wednesday with most deterministic & ensemble
guidance developing a potent shortwave along the US-Canada
border. Ensemble guidance has the heaviest precipitation across
northern & central Minnesota & Wisconsin, and shows at least
medium (40-60%) chances for widespread rainfall amounts of at
least one inch. After this system exits, ensemble guidance shows
a strong signal for below normal temperatures Thursday & Friday
with temperature anomalies around 10 degrees below normal. More
typical summertime weather returns for next weekend, along with
another chance for an organized system and widespread showers &
thunderstorms

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 630 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

Overnight, we saw the main upper trough move into MN and as it
has done so, lift out ahead of it has resulted in the line of
showers over western WI at the start of this period. This will
bring occasional -RA to EAU over the next 2 or 3 hours. After
that, it`s a question of how bad will the smoke be. There is a
batch over smoke over eastern MN, but through the morning, this
is expected to improve, but there`s a second round of smoke over
NoDak that will be coming for us this afternoon. Just how low
vis will get with this and how long it will persist are unknown
the HRRR indicates this region of smoke would stick around
through Sunday morning. Based on obs out in NoDak, some IFR
vsbys are plausible when the next round of smoke gets in here.

KMSP...It would be a top 10 weather day, if it weren`t for the
smoke. Based on obs to the west, it does look like we`ll see
vsbys improve by late morning. However, another batch of thick
smoke over NoDak will work its way toward MSP late this
afternoon and likely stick around through Saturday night. Which
means any improvements in the vis today will be short-lived
before the next round arrives.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR. Slight chc -tsra. Wind SW 10-15 kts.
MON...VFR. Wind S 5-10 kts.
TUE...VFR, chc MVFR. -TSRA likely in evening. Wind S 5-10 kts.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ETA
AVIATION...MPG