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000
FXUS61 KOKX 201449
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1049 AM EDT Sat Apr 20 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move across the region late this afternoon
into the evening. High pressure then builds in through early
next week, then gives way to a frontal system on Wednesday.
High pressure then builds in again for the end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Pre-frontal trough continues to work its way across the area
this morning. Showers accompanying the trough and lift aloft
from an approaching jet streak will translate eastward through
the rest of the morning. Most places along and west of the
Hudson River corridor will be dry with the bulk of the showers
occurring across Long Island and central/eastern CT.

Rainfall amounts will be light with potential of around a
quarter inch across eastern Long Island/southeast CT.

Otherwise, already seeing clearing occur to our west and expect
this drier air to work its way into the area late this morning
and early afternoon. Winds will shift to the W by afternoon
which will allow temperatures to rise into the 60s for much of
the area, with upper 60s to near 70 across portions of NE NJ.
Did bump up temperatures on Long Island as the flow should
mainly be W or just south of west with little influence from the
cooler ocean.

The main cold front moves across the area late this afternoon,
shifting the winds to the NW, ushering in a cooler and drier
airmass. Winds may briefly gust 25-35 mph, especially west of
the NYC metro. A few of the CAMs are also showing some isolated
showers with the frontal passage late in the day. Have added in
a slight chance of a shower across CT and eastern LI this
evening, but most places will be dry.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
The cold front continues to push across the area early this evening.
Any leftover isolated showers, should quickly come to an end. Behind
the front, expect mostly clear skies with lows falling into the 30s
inland and Long Island Pine Barrens and lower 40s closer to the
coast.

A large upper level low will be developing over southeast Canada
tonight into Sunday. This will result in troughing persisting over
the eastern US early next week. A wave of low pressure is progged to
develop over the southeast on Sunday along with another shortwave
swinging across New England. These features will likely bring middle
and upper level clouds on Sunday with partly to mostly cloudy skies
and dry conditions. Highs will be a few degrees below normal in the
upper 50s to around 60 degrees.

Surface high pressure then builds into the region for Monday and
Monday night. Conditions will remain dry with highs on Monday in the
upper 50s and lower 60s. Temperatures will fall into the 30s Monday
night. Light winds and cold temperatures may result in some frosty
spots well north and west of NYC.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A more zonal mid-level flow takes hold of the region by Tuesday with
surface high pressure in place during the day. The next piece of
energy embedded in a trough over the Great Lakes approaches the area
on Wednesday. A low pressure system develops and passes north of the
area pushing a cold front through the area Wednesday afternoon into
Wednesday night. This brings the next chance for a round of rain for
the area. The surface low moves northeast of the area on Thursday
with high pressure building in from the west through the end of the
week making for a fairly tranquil period.

Temperatures will remain at or below average for the extended period
with highs each day in the middle 50s to low 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A surface trough pushes east late this morning ahead of a cold
front that moves across the terminals this afternoon. High
pressure builds in tonight.

Rain showers are coming to an end from west to east, lingering
only at KISP and KGON as of 15Z. This will come to an end
everywhere by 16Z, with quick improvement to VFR thereafter.

Light SW flow may briefly become more W at the terminals late
this morning behind the surface trough. Winds then expected to
shift back to the SW into early afternoon before the passage of
the cold front late in the day veers winds more WNW or NW with
20 to 25 kt gusts developing. Gusts diminish into the first
half of the overnight period, with modest 10 kt westerly flow
thru the remaining TAF period.

     NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Unscheduled AMD possible for timing of category changes.

Isolated gusts to 30 kt late today and early this evening.

OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

Sunday: VFR. W winds G15-20kt in the afternoon/early evening mainly
NYC metros/coast.

Monday and Tuesday: VFR.

Wednesday: Showers becoming likely. S winds 10-15G20-25kt mainly in
the afternoon/evening, becoming NW at night.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
A cold front moves across the waters late today into this
evening. Winds may briefly gust close to 25 kt near the NY
Harbor and western Sound with the passage of the front, but it
is not expected to last for many hours. No SCA has been issued.
High pressure will otherwise build tonight through Sunday.
Winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA levels given a
relatively weak pressure gradient.

High pressure should keep conditions at sub-advisory levels through
at least Tuesday night. Conditions may build back to SCA levels on
Wednesday with the next low pressure and associated cold front to
approach.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts expected through next week.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BC/MW
NEAR TERM...BC/DS
SHORT TERM...BC
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...DR/MW
MARINE...BC/MW
HYDROLOGY...BC/MW