Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 170538 AAB
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1138 PM MDT Sun Jun 16 2019

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
Sct showers and isold tstms to persist over nrn and central NM
through 10Z before diminishing. Low level moisture has pushed wwd
into portions of the RGV and can`t rule out isold to lcl MVFR cigs
from the east slopes of the central mt chain to the TX border between
10Z and 15Z. Winds aloft and steering flow will trend swly through
21Z, becoming wly thereafter. Scattered showers and tstms to
redevelop over the higher terrain by 18Z with isold strong to severe
storms with large hail and damaging winds possible over ern NM. Over
wrn and central NM, some of the showers and storms will be dry with
gusty variable winds.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...341 PM MDT Sun Jun 16 2019...
.SYNOPSIS...
Isolated to scattered showers and storms will plague northern and
central New Mexico this evening, with some of the activity in the
west capable of gusty and erratic winds. Precipitation chances are
expected to be slightly higher across north central and northeast
New Mexico for Monday, with a few strong to severe storms capable
of strong winds, hail and heavy rain. The threat of severe weather
may extend as far south as Quay to Roosevelt counties. Chances for
precipitation start to diminish over the west on Tuesday with one
more day of locally strong to severe storms along and east of the
Sangre de Cristo Mountains. Storm chances will likely dwindle even
further for Wednesday with the best chances from the Sangres into
the northeast highlands. Temperatures start to climb above average
statewide on Thursday, with several areas experiencing the warmest
day of the year.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Upper low has shifted east of New Mexico; however, enough moisture
and instability has allowed a few storms to erupt across the higher
terrain with 850-300mb steering flow taking activity on an eastward
trajectory. HRRR continues to show inverted-V soundings and DCAPE
values of 750-1000 J/kg in the west, maintaining a threat for gusty
and erratic outflow winds. Severe winds are not expected given the
degree of instability.

West-northwest flow aloft will shift to more of a west-southwest
component on Monday as a baggy trough/weak closed low evolves over
the far southwest U.S. This should allow return flow to develop in
eastern New Mexico as diffluent flow is noted in the upr atmosphere.
Scattered to potentially numerous showers and storms will be favored
across the Sangre de Cristo Mountains to the northeast-east central
plains. Steep low-level lapse rates coupled with 1000-2000 J/kg of
MLCAPE should support the threat for robust updrafts. Activity will
likely be messy as 0-6km bulk shear values of 15-25kts will likely
favor multi-cellular activity. Storm motions will be slow initially
then gradually increase by late afternoon/evening. With PWAT values
approaching one inch near the OK/TX state border, activity will be
capable of heavy rainfall. NAM-3km depicts storms congealing into a
line of convection from Union to Roosevelt counties, and this seems
reasonable.

Drier zonal flow is forecast on Tuesday; however, an upper level
shortwave will clip northern-northeast NM. A strong storm may form
across Union County where the best instability sets up. Risk should
be lower compared to Monday. Further drying and warmer readings can
be expected for Wednesday. Maintained scattered coverage of showers
and thunderstorms along/near eastern slopes of Sangres; however, it
may be a bit aggressive with both NAM/GFS nearly void of QPF. Even
warmer conditions are expected for Thursday with upper 90s and 100s
common across the east central and southeast plains. KABQ could hit
95F, 102F at KTCC and 105F at KROW... all hitting the warmest temp
for the season.

Stronger west-southwest winds appear more likely on Fri as models
suggests a more amplified trough swinging through the Great Basin.
Given a transition out of a wetter pattern, finer fuels will start
to dry out, introducing a more bonafide risk for critical fire wx
conditions in the eastern plains. Certainly something to monitor a
bit more closely in the coming days. DPorter

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A mixture of wet and dry tstms will continue over western and
central NM this afternoon and Mon, with more wetting storms
developing over the northern high terrain then moving into mainly
east-central and northeastern NM. Southerly flow and increased wind
shear will allow for some storms to become severe over eastern NM
Mon afternoon and evening.

A drying and warming trend begins Tue with a disturbance keeping
storms going across the north one more day Tue. Winds turn westerly
Wed with poor to fair recoveries expanding from west to east each
night for the latter half of the week. Winds turn sw Fri and into
the weekend as a large feature trough moves into the NW CONUS,
widespread Haines 6 starting Thu. Winds have trended up Wed-Fri,
increasing the chances for critical fire weather developing,
notably on Fri across eastern NM. 24/RJH

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$



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