Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 221742 AAC
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1242 PM CDT Mon Apr 22 2019

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1237 PM CDT Mon Apr 22 2019

See aviation discussion below for the 18Z TAFS.

UPDATE Issued at 1104 AM CDT Mon Apr 22 2019

The forecast remains largely on track through the remainder of
today. The last of the shower activity in our southern zones is
diminishing or already has diminished. Made some minor
adjustments to a few elements to account for trends observed this
morning. Forecast updates have been sent.

UPDATE Issued at 624 AM CDT Mon Apr 22 2019

See updated aviation discussion below.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 351 AM CDT Mon Apr 22 2019

Precipitation will continue to slowly diminish in intensity/coverage
through the morning as low pressure weakens and drifts east. Clouds
will also gradually proceed south and east. Low level flow goes from
northeast to north, but little thermal advection is noted so as long
as we get some sunshine temperatures will end up close to what was
achieved Sunday. Flow goes weak overnight, so anticipate a few spots
will drop close to the freezing mark. Then we get around to
southwest flow for Tuesday, and with thermal advection is appears
we`ll be back into the 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 351 AM CDT Mon Apr 22 2019

The early part of the extended period will be dry as high pressure
exits the region Tuesday night and a frontal boundary approaches on
Wednesday. May see a few rain showers develop along and behind the
front Wednesday night, then weak high pressure brings a return to
dry conditions on Thursday. A stronger area of low pressure will
then slide across the Rockies, and look to be a more widespread rain
maker Friday night into Saturday morning. Weak instability develops
over the western half of the state Friday night, so cannot rule out
some thunderstorm development along and west of the Missouri River.
Models diverge some with their solutions at the end of the period,
with the GFS and the Canadian keeping Saturday afternoon through
Sunday dry under high pressure, while the ECMWF brings another low
pressure system and additional precipitation chances in. For now,
will stick with the in-house model blend and keep slight chance to
chance POPs going until the models come into better agreement.

Wednesday will be the warmest day of the period, with highs in the
lower to mid 70s. Will then see a gradually cooling trend, with
highs in the 60s Thursday and Friday, in the mid 50s to mid 60s
Saturday, and in the 50s Sunday. Overnight lows will be in the mid
30s to mid 40s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1237 PM CDT Mon Apr 22 2019

Gusty northerly winds will persist through the afternoon at KATY
and KABR before improving late this afternoon and early evening.
VFR conditions will prevail at all terminals through this forecast
period.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Vipond
SHORT TERM...Connelly
LONG TERM...Parkin
AVIATION...Vipond


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