Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 201947

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
247 PM CDT Sat Jul 20 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday Night)
Issued at 247 PM CDT Sat Jul 20 2019

While another round of precipitation is expected late tonight
through Sunday, it should be much different than the last several
night, with only isolated thunderstorms. Otherwise, dry weather
should be the rule Sunday night. While a ridge of high pressure to
our northwest slowly builds across the Dakotas through Sunday night,
we will have one last 500mb wave to deal with. It will shift across
ND during the day Sunday, clipping our mainly northern and eastern
counties. PW values do rise to 1-1.5in west of the James River by
12Z Sunday, and expand across the entire cwa through 21Z.
Instability looks limited, with the higher CAPE values (still around
500J/kg or less) mainly just in the afternoon hours over our eastern-
northeastern counties.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 247 PM CDT Sat Jul 20 2019

The long term starts off with a highly meridional mid level pattern
for the middle/end of July. Strong ridging centered over the Rockies
is expected to persist through much of the period, but get dampened
by s/w energy over time. For the most part, the period should be dry
under sfc high pressure, except for toward the end of the period
when a sfc front migrates across the region Thursday through Friday.
Temperatures will favor near, or a bit below normal for most of the


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1215 PM CDT Sat Jul 20 2019

VFR ceilings and vis expected for the next 24 hours, with winds
less than 15 knots outside of any isolated showers or
thunderstorms that could move over the TAF sites during the
daylight hours Sunday.




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