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FXAK67 PAJK 162235
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
235 PM AKDT Tue Jul 16 2019

.SHORT TERM...A front over the panhandle is becoming occluded
with a triple point approaching Dixon Entrance. Rain is widespread
across the entire panhandle this afternoon. Greatest rainfall
amounts have been along the outer coast including Yakutat, Sitka,
and Prince of Wales Island. As a new low center forms at the
triple point tonight, expect the pressure pattern/winds to shift
more N-NELY and rain to be pulled away from the northern inner
channels and Yakutat. Meanwhile, rainfall rates across the south
will be enhanced to moderate/heavy at times.

The low will progress eastward into Canada through Wednesday and
rain will transition to showers behind the front. Expect breaks in
the clouds across the north in the morning. This along with a
predominately north (downslope) surface wind and fairly strong
offshore winds aloft, will cause the northern inner channels to be
able to reach around 70 degrees again.

Easterly waves, showers moving in from Canada, become an
increasing possibility late Wednesday afternoon through Thursday
morning. Models differed on placement still, but were in best
agreement for a band to set up from Juneau to Tenakee Springs. How
wide the band is and how transient is another question. There
seems to be a trend in the band slowly shifting southward as the
parent upper level low moves off to the SE. Despite this
uncertainty, did increase POP near the band and decreased POP
where models agreed there would be none.

Generally preferred the GFS for adjustments to POP/QPF. Forecast
confidence is average.

.LONG TERM...Thursday through Tuesday as of 10 pm Monday...By the
time this period begins, the panhandle will be under the influence
of a low tracking south of the region. Rainfall will be ongoing
for the better portion of the panhandle at this point with highest
totals currently expected along portions of the coast and through
the south. Ensemble plumes suggest that areas from Sitka to
Petersburg to Annette could see totals ending Friday nearing 2 to
3 inches for the week. These totals could be very subject to
change pending the actual movement of the low, however models have
begun to become more consistent and a beneficial rainfall to the
areas greatest impacted by drought appears likely. A brief break
from the rain looks like a good bet for most locations on Friday
before a second low moves toward the region. Rainfall should
continue through the weekend for most locations however intensity
will be greatly reduced compared to earlier in the week. At this
length, pretty substantial model disagreement occurs with the
solution for the second low and beyond, but the prevailing thought
is that the pattern will continue to repeat itself with a brief
break sometime Sunday or Monday, followed by more rain associated
with yet another low pressure system. Temperatures look to be on a
slight warming trend each day through the period with a few
locations possibly topping out at or near 70 by Monday and
Tuesday.

&&

.AJK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ022-036-041>043-051-052.

&&

$$

Ferrin/JDR

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