Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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FXUS61 KAKQ 200800

National Weather Service Wakefield VA
400 AM EDT Thu Jun 20 2019

A strong cold front pushes through the local area late this
afternoon and evening. High pressure will build into the area on
Friday and settle across the region on Saturday. A warm front
lifts back north Saturday night into Sunday as high pressure
becomes anchored along the southeast coast.


As of 345 AM EDT Thursday...

Latest analysis indicates rather strong sfc low pressure for the
time of year centered over northern IN (~999 mb), with sfc high
pressure well off the coast. Aloft, a potent trough extends S
from the western Great Lakes to the lower MS Valley. Warm and
humid once again over the local area with temperatures mostly in
the lower to mid 70s with dew pts in the upper 60s in the
Piedmont to the lower-mid 70s over SE VA and NE NC. There is an
isolated shower pushing ENE from central VA to the northern
Neck, but overall rain-free conditions and a quiet start to the
day can be expected.

Conditions turn active later today as a cold front moves east
and sweeps across the region late in the day through the
evening. This will be associated with a strong shortwave as the
upper trough moves east. SPC has highlighted most of the CWA in
a slight risk for severe wx with a small area of enhanced risk
over south central VA and interior NE NC. The main ingredients
supporting severe wx today include strong daytime heating and
instability (ML CAPES to 1500 to 2500 J/Kg) and strong shear as
the mean 700-500 mb winds increase to 50kt+ in the enhanced risk
area and 35-45 kt over the rest of the area. Strong height
falls and a strong sfc low also favor a significant event.
GFS/NAM also depict increasing mid level lapse rates(to 6.5C/km)
over southern VA and NE NC after 21Z. There is one inhibiting
factor to all of this however is that there will be a WSW
direction of the flow. This often disrupts storm organization E
of the Mtns due to downsloping (but not always). Will be
interesting to see what feature wins out today. All of the
risks will be highlighted in the HWO. The timing is fairly
consistent among the various models, though the 00Z/20 NAM is
generally the slowest (as is often the case). A consensus brings
the highest PoPs into the Piedmont by mid to late aftn,
shifting to the I-95 corridor from 21-00Z and to the coast from
23Z-03Z. With the added sunshine through mid to late aftn,
expect to see highs rebound to the upper 80s/around 90F Piedmont
to the lower 90s most areas (with some mid 90s possible over SE
VA and NE NC).

Behind the front tonight will see a wind shift to the WNW and
the chances for rain will quickly diminish from 03-06Z. Lows in
the 60s to lower 70s.


As of 345 AM EDT Thursday...

The upper trough will cross the region around 12z and the
models have been trying to show a wrap around moisture band
impacting the Lower MD Eastern Shore early Friday. For now have
left a slight chance for a shower on Friday morning. After that
the surface high builds in with cooler and drier conditions
Friday afternoon and night. For temperatures, did not drop
readings as much as MAV suggested Thurs night since as it
usually takes a little time to get the low level moisture
completely out this time of year. But should see readings in the
low to mid 80s on Friday with lower humidity. Friday night
should be the coolest night. although some high clouds could
limit cooling some across the south.

Saturday still has some uncertainty as the WNW flow aloft could
push some upstream convection through the region. The NAM is
farther to the north and slides an MCS from the Ohio Valley
across Srn VA and Nrn NC. The GFS is weaker and farther south
with the convective complex. For now have kept a more optimistic
view and kept the forecast dry and will have to monitor this


As of 310 PM EDT Wednesday...

Warm front lifts NE through the FA Sat night-Sun morning then hi
pres sets up invof SE states from Sun afternoon-Tue resulting in
a period of typical early summer wx. PoPs to remain aob 20-30%
(diurnal) Sun-Mon...then w/ a cold front pushing into the area
from the W by late Tue...PoPs increase to 30-40%. Lower PoPs are
expected by Wed.

Lows Sat night in the l-m60s. Highs Sun in the m80s. Lows Sun
night 65-70F. Highs Mon in the u80s-around 90F at the coast to
the l90s inland. Lows Mon night in the l-m70s. Highs Tue in the
u80s-l90s. Highs Wed mainly 85-90F.


As of 200 AM EDT Thursday...

VFR conditions prevail early this morning and with a light SSW
flow, think fog is unlikely at any of the terminals. Could see
some low stratus try to develop towards sunrise but this
scenario is looking less likely given some remaining mid level
clouds across the region. Remaining mainly dry through 18Z
across the region well in advance of an approaching cold front.
Becoming breezy with W-SW winds gusting to ~20 kt by late
morning. SCT SHRAs/tstms are expected during the late
afternoon/early evening hours as the cold front moves across
the region. Tstms will have the potential to be accompanied by
strong/gusty winds, especially between 21Z and about 01Z. For
now have VCTS wording in the TAFs beginning late in the aftn,
followed by prevailing SHRA by early evening. Have kept TSRA
wording out of the TAFs given the uncertainty in exact timing,
but later TAF issuances will likely need to add TSRA groups as
timing becomes more certain. Winds shift to the WNW late tonight
and Fri and turn breezy again during the day Fri.

Dry with VFR conditions Fri/Sat. ISO/SCT convection possible
again Sun/Mon afternoons/evenings.


As of 800 PM EDT Wednesday...

SCAs now in effect for the southern coastal waters and Currituck
Sound starting Thursday evening.

SSW winds will average 10-15 kt this evening and tonight with
scattered showers and tstms waining before midnight. A cold
front will approach the area from the west on Thursday, before
crossing the waters early Friday morning. SW winds will
increase through the day on Thursday, reaching 15-25 kt by
Thursday evening and night. Locally stronger winds will be
possible with thunderstorms late Thursday which will likely
require SMWs. Once the cold front moves through early Friday
morning, winds will become WNW 20-25 with gusts to 30 kt
(especially for bay and northern ocean zones). Winds will
diminish Friday afternoon into Friday night as low pressure
moves quickly off to the NE. High pressure and generally benign
conditions then return for the weekend. Seas will peak at 3-5 ft
late Thu/Fri with waves on the Bay of 3-4 ft.


MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 1 PM EDT Friday for
     Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 4 PM EDT Friday
     for ANZ630>632-634.
     Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 1 PM EDT Friday
     for ANZ633-638.
     Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM to 1 PM EDT Friday for ANZ654.
     Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 1 PM EDT Friday
     for ANZ656-658.
     Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM to 6 PM EDT Friday for ANZ650-


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