Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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FXUS61 KAKQ 251559
AFDAKQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
1159 AM EDT Wed Apr 25 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure tracks across Virginia today, then moves away from
the coast tonight. Weak high pressure returns Thursday. Another
area of low pressure crosses the local area late Thursday night
through Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 555 AM EDT Wednesday...

Update for (more) FG...esp invof Hampton Roads through mid
morning. VSBYS less than 1/2-3/4 NM.

Previous Discussion:
Weak sfc lo pres invof wcentral NC attm...tracks slowly ENE
through ern VA today. Bulk of the RA from the past 24 hours has
lifted N of the local area. Lo CIGS and patchy/areas of
-RA/-DZ and FG linger over much of the FA...w/ exception over
coastal NE NC. These conditions are expected to last through
early/mid morning. Trailing upper level lo pres will slowly
cross the area this afternoon...accompanied by SCT- likely
SHRAS. Otherwise...VRB clouds-mostly cloudy midday/this
afternoon. Models suggest enough instability available as the
cold pool aloft enters/crosses the local area (esp srn/se VA-NE
NC) for possible (ISOLD) tstms. Highs today from the m60s-l70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 345 AM EDT Wednesday...

Lo pres (sfc-aloft) exits the region this eve resulting in
lowering PoPs. Will continue w/ trend of lowering PoPs SW-NE
this eve...then drying begins overnight. Expecting some
lingering moisture over far srn/SE areas of the FA into Thu
morning. Lows from around 50F NW to the m50s SE.

A brief break from the unsettled wx Thu...though expecting
clouds to begin arriving/increasing from the SSW as the next
area of lo pres tracks through TN/nrn AL/nrn GA. Have held off
on raising PoPs above 14% over the (SW portion of the) FA
through 00Z/27. Highs Thu mainly 70-75F.

A quick increase in PoPs (to 50-80%) Thu night as lo pres enters
the FA from the SW. Keeping PoPs 50-70% NE half of the FA Fri
morning...tapering to 20-30% SW. The lo pres area lifts to the
NE of the local area Fri afternoon...however will be keeping
20-30% as a lo pres trough remains invof the FA.
Otherwise...mostly cloudy then partly sunny Fri...w/ highs from
the u60s-around 70F N to the m70s SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 400 PM EDT Tuesday...

GFS/ECMWF differ early in this period with the GFS showing the last
in a series of s/w trofs rounding the base of the long wave trof
late Fri night with it moving off the sern coast Sat ahead of a weak
frontal passage. Meanwhile, the ECMWF is drier with little if any
support for pcpn even with the frontal passage Sat. A model blend
results in low chc shwrs across the sern zones late Fri night and
Sat keeping the rest of the local area dry for now. Lows Fri nite
upr 40s-mid 50s. Highs Sat upr 60s-mid 70s, cooler at the beaches.

After that, some delightful spring weather on tap early next week as
high pressure builds se from the Gt lakes region Sun to a position
over the local area Mon then off the Mid Atlantic coast Tue. Cool to
start then a warming trend.  Highs Sun generally in the 60s. Lows in
the 40s to near 50 se. Highs Mon upr 60s-lwr 70s. Lows upr 40s-lwr
50s. Highs Tue 75-80.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 800 AM EDT Wednesday...

Starting out w/ widespread LIFR/IFR conditions (primarily due to
CIGS). Sfc lo pres invof wcentral NC will be tracking slowly NE
through ern VA today as an upper level low arrives from the W
and crosses the region midday through this eve. Will have
continued LIFR/IFR conditions (mainly CIGS) through late
morning along w/ patchy -RA/-DZ. By this afternoon...VRB clouds-
mostly cloudy as CIGS lift through MVFR to potential lo end VFR.
Will continue w/ SCT-Likely SHRAS and there could be ISOLD
tstms as the cold pool aloft crosses the region from about
17Z/25-00Z/26. Confidence not high enough attm to add to the
TAFs. Wx will be slow to improve tonight as lo pres finally
moves away to the ENE. VFR conditions expected Thu as weak hi
pres returns. Another area of lo pres will impact the region by
late Thu night into Fri afternoon w/ flight restrictions likely
due to lower BKN-OVC CIGS and SHRAS. Mainly VFR conditions
expected Sat-Sun.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 1155 AM EDT Wednesday...

Fog has lifted across the Bay and rivers and is improving over
the Ocean from Parramore Island and points north. Updated to
allow dense FG advisory to expire, though will mentions 1-3NM
vsbys this aftn N a of Parramore Island. SCA remains in effect
for the ocean into Thu with lingering long period swell of 10-12
sec. Also have extended through 4pm for the mouth of the Bay for
4 ft waves. Waves 1-2 ft or less for the rest of the Bay/rivers/sound.


Broad low pressure was cntrd over south central VA late this morning.
This low will continue to lift NE and acrs ern VA, the
Delmarva, and into New Jersey this aftn through tonight. SSW
5-15 kt during today (genly <10 kt over the Bay and rivers),
then become W then NW 10-15 kt throughout the marine area
later tonight into Thu morning. The low will move farther away
to the NE later tonight into Thu, as weak high pressure builds
in fm the NNW. Waves/seas will subside later today thru Thu.
Another low pressure area will affect the waters Thu night thru
Fri, as it tracks fm the SE U.S. northeast acrs VA and into New
Jersey.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ634.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ650-652-
     654.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB
NEAR TERM...ALB
SHORT TERM...ALB
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...ALB
MARINE...LKB/TMG


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