Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 220100

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
900 PM EDT Sun Apr 21 2019

Issued at 900 PM EDT Sun Apr 21 2019

Warm/stationary front is holding near the Straits late this
evening...attached to low pressure developing to the lee of the
Rockies over the Central Plains. Precip associated with the front
has generally been confined to along and north of the boundary...
but a few stray showers have tried to make a push southward into
far Northern Lower Michigan. Surface obs have shown very little
evidence of these showers actually reaching the ground...and
suspect much of the returns across our CWA are mid clouds/virga.
Still...a few showers have managed to reach the ground across
portions of Eastern Upper Michigan...and cannot rule out a few
light showers reaching the ground as far as the tip of the Mitt
over the next couple of hours. Have therefore made some minor
southward modifications to POPs thru which time the near
term models suggest precip will wave back northward as the front
does the same.


.NEAR TERM...(Through Tonight)
Issued at 356 PM EDT Sun Apr 21 2019

High impact weather potential: None.

Pattern synopsis: While ridging dominates at the mid levels, low
level baroclinic axis ramping up nicely early this afternoon across
the northern Great Lakes...manifesting itself as developing quasi-
stationary front extending from central Wisconsin to northern lower
Michigan. Pretty good convergence along this front, with northeast
winds rotating out of southern Canada, and broad southerly flow
across the lower Great Lakes. Area of showers continues to rotate
well north of this front in zone of maximum moisture convergence
along sharp H8-H7 theta-e gradient. These showers have largely
remained northwest of our area, with just a few remnant sprinkles
rotating into our area at times (especially across eastern). Outside
of these sprinkles, have experienced quite a bit of sunshine across
northern lower Michigan, which has helped boost temperatures into
the 60s (even a few lower 70s), with east flow keeping readings
just a bit cooler north of the big bridge.

Really, not a whole lot of change to the larger scale features as we
head through tonight. Increase of southerly flow does bow the front
slowly north, likely reaching vicinity of the Straits region by
morning. Primary low/mid level moisture convergence remains north of
this front, likely bring some additional shower chances into eastern
upper Michigan and the Straits region.

Primary forecast concerns/challenges: Addressing that shower
potential and cloud/temperature trends.

Details: Northern lower quasi-stationary front very slowly works its
way north overnight, but looks to fall short of reaching eastern
upper Michigan (which is very typical for this time of year). Expect
waves of showers to continue to develop north of this front, kicked
off by passing impulses on north end of mid level ridge axis and
where forcing/moisture convergence is maximized on nose of low level
jet. Expect some of this activity to "spill" into eastern upper
Michigan at times, although the steadiest and heaviest rains look to
remain across western upper Michigan. Limited forcing and
maintenance of dry low levels across northern lower should keep
conditions dry. Still looking at passing high and mid level clouds,
especially the further north one goes. Those clouds and light
southeast flow will keep temperatures rather mild overnight, with
readings only falling into the 40s, with areas near and south of
Grand Traverse Bay likely not falling out of the 50s.


.SHORT TERM...(Monday through Wednesday)
Issued at 356 PM EDT Sun Apr 21 2019

...Showers Monday night into Tuesday morning...

High Impact Weather Potential...Very low.

Primary Forecast Concerns...Thunderstorm chances Monday night.

Another unseasonably warm day Monday with highs ranging from the mid
50s north to the lower and mid 70s south. A weak area of low
pressure moves across the region Monday night into Tuesday bringing
showers to all of northern Michigan (highest pops north). Rainfall
amounts generally on the order of a half inch or less. There is also
a small chance for thunderstorms across the south...though am not
too excited with only a little cape in evidence. Any remaining
shower activity will exit the region from west to east by Tuesday
afternoon. Short wave ridging then should clear out skies Tuesday
night. Mostly sunny conditions Wednesday morning followed by
increasing mid/high level clouds in the afternoon. Cooler with highs
in the mid 40s to the mid 50s Tuesday. Milder again Wednesday with
highs ranging from the lower 50s north to around 60 south.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 356 PM EDT Sun Apr 21 2019

...Seasonable temperatures...

High Impact Weather Potential: Very low.

Overall a fairly active weather pattern but with only weak systems
to worry about. The first is a cold front that moves through
Thursday. This will be followed by an area of low pressure that
moves across the region next weekend. These are the time periods
when there will be shower chances. As far as temperatures go, they
should be close to seasonable levels.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 700 PM EDT Sun Apr 21 2019

A cold front located near the Straits area will hold over this
area tonight thru much of Monday...keeping any associated low
clouds and precip north of Northern Lower Michigan thru 00Z
Tuesday. Conditions will remain VFR thru the 24 hr TAF forecast
period...with only mid/high clouds streaming overhead. Light winds
tonight will become southerly at around 10 kts on Monday.


Issued at 356 PM EDT Sun Apr 21 2019

A frontal boundary will remained stalled across the northern Great
Lakes through Monday, with developing low pressure moving along this
front Monday night into early Tuesday. Winds are expected to remain
below advisory criteria through at least the first half of Monday
night, due to pretty strong overlake stability, despite winds
kicking up at times just above the surface. Winds are expected to
increase in speed as they become northwest on Tuesday. Appears small
craft advisory conditions will be likely on at least some nearshore
waters on Tuesday.

There will be chances for showers across mainly Whitefish Bay and
the St. Mary`s through Monday, with chances arriving in all
nearshore waters Monday night. A few thunderstorms are also possible
Monday night, perhaps producing some isolated gusty winds.




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